Your benevolent dictator of Trade Down Island explains the wisdom – and the data – as to why the Panthers should trade back from No. 8.
Greetings from your benevolent dictator of Trade Down Island.
As the calendar turns to April and the NFL Draft draws near, I will dutifully fulfill my role in the coming weeks as the revered, universally beloved leader of my beautiful football-loving island nation. I won last year’s election with 108% of the popular vote to my opponents -8%, so I will take the mandate my people have given me and impose my will for the Carolina Panthers to smartly trade down in the 2025 draft.
I’m writing this brilliant treatise while sitting on the beach, listening to the waves crash, watching dolphins frolic, and sipping on a virgin pina colada served to me by one of my hosts of trained monkey butlers. Living on Trade Down Island is football nirvana, my friends.
Before I begin, I demand that you read the glorious constitution of Trade Down Island. Do it now! That’s an order!
As you have now read, the guiding principles of TDI’s constitution come down to the fact that the NFL draft is nothing but educated guesswork. Therefore, the more picks teams have in the first four rounds, the more likely they are to win the draft over time. Now, if a surefire Pro Bowler is on the board when the Panthers are drafting at No. 8, they should take him. But short of that, they will be better off smartly trading down a few spots in Round 1 to acquire more picks in Rounds 2-4.
While your benevolent dictator is all-wise and all-knowing, my brilliant perspective regarding smartly trading down from No. 8 is based on objective data, which is this:
Between 2014 and 2020, players drafted between No. 8-10 have underperformed players drafted between No. 15-17.
Evaluating draft picks from 2014 through 2020
With data taken from Football Reference, here’s the high-level summary of the performance of players drafted between 2014 and 2020 selected at No. 8-10 versus No. 15-17. I’m stopping with the 2020 draft because it gives players at least four years in the NFL before evaluating their performance:
Yes, beloved subjects, the 21 players drafted between No. 15-17 have outperformed those drafted between No. 8-10 in almost every meaningful statistical category. Those drafted later have appeared in more games, started more total seasons, yielded more Pro Bowlers, and have a superior Approximate Value.
Players drafted between No. 8-10 have produced more All-Pros (six) to those drafted between No. 15-17 (four), but on the whole the players drafted later in the first round have outperformed the players drafted earlier.
If you would like to see the players behind the data, here’s the list of players drafted at No. 8-10 and here’s the link for No. 15-17.
Here’s a quick summary of the Pro Bowlers:
Drafted No. 8-10: Anthony Barr (4), Eric Ebron (1), Vic Beasly (1), Todd Gurley (3), Christian McCaffrey (3), Patrick Mahomes (6), Roquan Smith (3), T.J. Hockenson (2)
Drafted No. 15-17: Ryan Shazier (2), Zack Martin (9), C.J. Mosley (5), Melvin Gordon (2), Taylor Decker (1), Keanu Neal (1), Marlon Humphrey (4), Jonathan Allen (2), Tremaine Edmunds (2), Derwin James (4), Brian Burns (2), Dexter Lawrence (3), Jerry Jeudy (1), CeeDee Lamb (4)
The winning strategy of smartly trading down
As stated in TDI’s glorious constitution, the draft is nothing but educated guesswork. Therefore, teams can’t readily “beat the market” over the long term unless they smartly trade down and acquire more draft assets. If a near guaranteed Pro Bowler is available at No. 8 – though nothing in the draft is even close to guaranteed – then the Panthers should take him. Otherwise, they should strategically move back into the middle of the first round and accumulate additional picks in Rounds 2-4.
Trading down from No. 8 to No. 16, for example, doesn’t mean the Panthers are moving from prime rib to chopped liver. They’re moving from prime rib to…even more prime rib!
Now, some of you, my beloved citizens, may doubt the omniscient wisdom of your benevolent dictator in trading back in this year’s draft. The reason for this is usually because you have become fixated on one or two players who will likely be available at No. 8. You’ve been envisioning him in a Panthers uniform since before the end of last year’s season. Well, if that’s the case, get over it.
The reality is, you really don’t know how successful any college player will be in the pros, and neither do NFL front offices. While talent evaluation isn’t as random as throwing darts, it’s still a highly-subjective process. Therefore, more picks are better than fewer. If you still don’t believe this, please go back and re-read the data above.
Remember, on the aggregate, players drafted between No. 15-17 in recent years have outperformed guys drafted between No. 8-10. Even if the Panthers move back seven or eight spots in the first round, players of roughly equal or even superior talent will still be available in the middle of the first round.
Additionally, by smartly trading back this year the Panthers can acquire additional valuable picks to continue rebuilding their roster, and I’ll share more of my infinite wisdom on this topic next week.
So, beloved citizens, are you ready to trade down?
For those of you who are, please join me tonight for a fantastic party on the beach with food, drinks, music, dancing, and monkey butlers.
For those who still oppose: Straight to jail! My Minister of Propaganda has more information about TDI’s jail system here.
Tune in next week for additional trade-down wisdom.
That’s an order!