In the latest edition of Predicting the Panthers, we tackle who is going to be fed the ball in the passing game.
In the second edition of Predicting the Panthers, it’s all about predicting who’s going to get the ball thrown their way. That’s right, we’re talking about targets.
Yours truly has gone through the painstaking task of downloading all of Pro Football Reference’s receiving data for each of the past four seasons, from whichever team new Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales happened to be coaching with that year. This includes his year as an offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his 2022 season as the quarterbacks coach with the Seattle Seahawks, as well as the two years he spent as the passing game coordinator between 2021 and 2020 also with the Seahawks.
The goal was simple, to use those 4 years of data to project several different statistics:
- Total targets
- Split of targets by each position
- Split of targets for the players at each position
In a sentence, I wanted to find out how many times any player would be targeted during a season, how those targets vary by position (i.e. how many targets each went to receivers, tight ends and running backs), and how many of the targets for each position would be spread among the depth chart (i.e. how many targets for WR1, WR2, WR3, etc.)
I won’t be posting all of the data, but I’ll share the general conclusion I found. Over the last four years, the offenses that Canales has coached for have averaged about 528.5 targets. Of those 528.5 targets, 336.75 (64%) went to wide receivers, 85.75 (16%) went to running backs, and 105.5 (20%) went to tight ends.
With all that now in mind, let’s get to the predictions. I’m not going to use the exact values I received from averaging over the four year span, but I will use those values as a general guideline for my template. For example, my analysis said that WR 1 should get 135 targets, RB 1 should get 42 targets, and TE 1 should get 61 targets. The template will defer slightly as I fine tuned a couple of the values for my final predictions.
Total targets: 530
Total Targets to WRs: 340
- WR 1 with 136 targets (40%): Diontae Johnson
- WR 2 with 102 targets (30%): Xavier Legette
- WR 3 with 62 targets (18%): Adam Thielen
- WR 4 with 29 targets (9%): Jonathan Mingo
- WR 5 with 8 targets (2%): Ihmir Smith-Marsette
- WR 6 with 3 targets (1%): David Moore
I think Johnson is the only choice for the most targets on the team. I predict Legette’s usage is second on the team because they want to use Thielen more situationally due to his age and limited explosiveness. The rest of the receivers listed are the ones I believe make the team, and in the order I expect them to receive touches.
Total Targets to RBs: 86
- RB 1 with 45 targets (52%): Jonathon Brooks
- RB 2 with 22 targets (26%): Chuba Hubbard
- RB 3 with 14 targets (16%): Miles Sanders
- RB 4 with 5 targets (6%): Raheem Blackshear
While I do think that Hubbard will receive the most snaps at the position, once Brooks returns completely healthy from his ACL tear he will be prioritized in the passing game.
Total Targets to TEs: 104
- TE 1 with 62 targets (60%): Tommy Tremble
- TE 2 with 26 targets (25%): Ja’Tavion Sanders
- TE 3 with 16 targets (15%): Ian Thomas
Tremble gets the nod for most targets because I don’t believe that a rookie will receive the most targets, and of the two veterans left to choose from Tremble has the most receiving upside. I do believe the team will prioritize using Sanders in certain situations, leaving him the easy choice for the second most targeted tight end.
Your turn!
Now that you know what I think, I want to know what you think! Copy and paste the template below into the comments section and provide your analysis for everyone to see.
WR 1 – 136 targets:
WR 2 – 102 targets:
WR 3 – 62 targets:
WR 4 – 29 targets:
WR 5 – 8 targets:
WR 6 – 3 targets:
***
RB 1 – 45 targets:
RB 2 – 22 targets:
RB 3 – 14 targets:
RB 4 – 5 targets:
***
TE 1 – 62 targets:
TE 2 – 26 targets:
TE 3 – 16 targets: