It’s a new spin on a classic tale in the NHL playoffs as the Canes will take on the New Jersey Devils in the first round
The Carolina Hurricanes still have work to do in the regular season before the NHL playoffs start, but there’s no intrigue or stakes left for their own fate.
The Hurricanes will face off with a familiar foe in the New Jersey Devils in the first round, in a series that will likely begin either Sunday or Monday in Raleigh.
The two franchises have a long history of postseason meet-ups, dating back to 2001, the last time the Canes fell short against New Jersey.
Carolina avenged that loss in 2002 on their way to the Stanley Cup Final, and the beat the Devils again in 2006 in the second round on their way to winning the Cup.
The first-round series in 2009 was arguably the most memorable, as it featured Eric Staal’s late game heroics in Game 7’s “Shock at the Rock.”
It would be 14 years before the two teams would meet again in 2023, largely due to Carolina’s near-decade-long postseason drought.
Again, the Canes sent the Devils packing in a rather non-competitive five-game series before getting swept by Florida in the Eastern Conference Final.
Quite a lot has changed for both of these franchises since 2023. Most notably, Brett Pesce now resides in the Garden State and has helped solidify a once-shaky backend.
Sheldon Keefe is behind the bench for New Jersey now after getting sent packing by the Toronto Maple Leafs, chiefly due to his inability to get it done in the spring.
Carolina, for its part, has undergone a major roster overhaul both in the last offseason and during this regular season.
The Hurricanes are favorites in this series, currently sitting at -245 to advance to the second round on DraftKings. That feels about right, I’d maybe give the Devils a slightly better shot than their +200 odds suggest, but the Canes have the upper hand.
Here’s some thoughts on how these teams stack up statistically, including the case for the Hurricanes as a clear favorite and why New Jersey could very much pull off the upset.
Both of these teams are done playing for anything meaningful, so all of these stats are as of Tuesday April 15 to minimize the noise of the season’s final contest. All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Why the Canes Should Win
As they are in pretty much any playoff series they play, the Hurricanes are the best five-on-five team between the two.
The Canes are first in the NHL in both shot attempts for and against per 60, and they’re first in the NHL in expected goals for per 60, ninth in xGA/60.
No team generates more chances of any variety than Carolina. Low danger, medium danger, high danger, the Hurricanes generate the most in them all.
The shooting percentage struggles are there this year, but they’re not as bad as we’ve seen them in the past. The Canes are 20th in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, so they still grade out very well in goals for per 60 at 7th in the league.
The Devils are 14th in the NHL in high danger chances against, which is worse than their ranking in both low and medium danger. If the Canes have the patience to go for good opportunities, that’s where you get the Devils.
Similarly, New Jersey is 21st in the league in generating low danger chances and 17th in creating high danger looks. They thrive on medium-danger, where they’re seventh.
The Hurricanes’ weak point this year, rather uncharacteristically, has been surrendering high danger chances.
They’re first in the league at preventing low danger; second at stopping medium danger; but 22nd at allowing high-danger opportunities.
Some team will likely make them pay for that at some point this postseason, but at least based on how they played in the regular season, the Devils aren’t overly equipped to do that.
And while Pesce and the growth of some young players have strengthened the Devils defensively, they’re more good than great at preventing both quality and quantity in their own end.
Why New Jersey Could Win
The last four teams to knock Carolina out of the playoffs are the 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning, 2022 New York Rangers, 2023 Florida Panthers, and 2024 New York Rangers.
Those four teams all have a few things in common that posed significant challenges to the Hurricanes, and a couple of those qualities are shared by the Devils.
One thing we’ve seen in those series is the opposition’s power play stepping up to flummox an elite Carolina penalty kill.
Last year, the Rangers scored five power play goals to Carolina’s two. Florida’s power play similarly beat Carolina’s 4-2, and the 2022 Rangers poured in seven power play goals compared to, you guessed it, two for the Hurricanes.
Those two New York squads and the 2023 Panthers were all in the top four of the NHL in expected goals for rate on the power play in the regular season. New Jersey is first in the NHL this year.
They’re third in the league in power play conversion rate, and the data suggests they could be even better than that. If the Canes get on a parade to the penalty box, it could very much bite them.
While Carolina has the number one penalty kill in the league by conversion rate, that’s driven more by elite shorthanded goaltending than by chance suppression. The Hurricanes are 13th in the NHL in shorthanded expected goals against rate.
That’s of course still above average, but if the goaltending falters there at all, it looks like something that could be a mismatch.
Now, the Devils will be without Jack Hughes for this series, which does sap quite a bit of the juice from their roster in exploiting Carolina’s high-pressure kill.
Think about what poised, skilled players like Adam Fox and Artemi Panarin do against this kill in the playoffs. They don’t panic under pressure, and they make quick, sharp decisions to keep the puck moving and eventually find the open man.
Can the Devils replicate that without Hughes? It’s possible, but he’s the guy with that skill set that would scare you if you’re Carolina’s coaching and video staff there.
At even-strength, if somebody on the Devils is going to capitalize on Carolina’s new-found weakness in preventing dangerous looks, keep an eye on Timo Meier.
The once-coveted Hurricanes target has been something of a disappointment for New Jersey since his acquisition from San Jose, but he does lead the team with 4.3 individual high-danger chances per 60.
Goaltending Addendum
Wow, is there ever some interesting stuff going on here.
You will hear a lot from the mainstream media heading into this series about New Jersey’s purported advantage between the pipes.
On the surface, it checks out. The Devils engineered a steal of a deal to get Jacob Markstrom from Calgary, and his reputation as a strong, reliable net minder is well-earned.
It even holds up when you glance at the numbers. On the season, Carolina is 31st in the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage at a .897. (The team’s overall performance does not feel that bad, and it’s because they are fifth in shorthanded save percentage.)
New Jersey, on the other hand, is 15th in the NHL at 5-on-5 at a .913.
But Carolina’s number is dragged down by a few performances from goalies who aren’t Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov.
Let’s assume Andersen gets the nod for this series given Kochetkov’s struggles of late. Andersen’s 5-on-5 save percentage this year is .907.
That’s still not as good as New Jersey’s, sure, but would you believe it’s actually better than Markstrom’s .905? And that the Devils’ ranking is largely due to some excellent play from backup Jake Allen?
It seems unbelievably far-fetched that Keefe would even consider giving Allen the nod given Markstrom’s pedigree and his status as the team’s major acquisition to solve the position.
But if we take Andersen and Markstrom’s regular season performance as a good indicator of where they’ll be next week? It’s a dead heat between the two.