The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are here, and we have a highly-anticipated Battle of Ontario. It’s been a long time coming, as the last playoff series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators featured the likes of Marian Hossa and Joe Nieuwendyk as the leading scorers for their respective sides in that 2004 first-round matchup. This series will be star packed in its own right, starting with the two captains, as Auston Matthews takes on fellow Team USA member, Brady Tkachuk. So buckle up because just like this series promises all the hits, us writers here at Last Word On Hockey will be following along with all the playoff action. We preview and subsequently recap all the series throughout the playoffs, so follow along with us for all of the action. So, let’s get down and dirty as the rivalry between Toronto and Ottawa takes the main stage.
Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs First-Round Playoff Series Prediction Based on Regular Season Series
Okay, okay, throw out the regular season. That may be the consensus, but there are a couple facts that still hold true. One thing is that most players and teams get fired up to play the Toronto Maple Leafs. That effect is further compounded for Ottawa, when you are the provincial rivals. Ottawa seems to elevate their play against Toronto and this year’s regular season series was a good example.
They went 3-0, outscoring The Buds impressively 9-3. In addition, it’s not like they were just getting lucky. They outshot the Leafs by a combined 89-79, thus showing they were able to maintain their level of play throughout 60-minutes of each game. That is the type of game that the Sens need to play throughout this series to have any kind of chance in the series in the end.
The teams’ final regular season matchup occurred in mid-March. That one Toronto out hit Ottawa 40 to 24, and just seemed much more determined overall. However, even still they came up short against the Senators. In that one, goaltender Linus Ullmark took home first star of the night honours. That was also the game that Ridly Greig and Scott Laughton decided to chuck ’em.
The Battle of Ontario is clearly alive and well. So, no, the regular season doesn’t always mean much, but we can anticipate a very intense playoff series in front of us.
Senators Key to Victory
Outscoring the opponent? Winning? One underrated factor for the Sens to emerge victorious is discipline. Their players that they need for the physical rigours of a demanding seven-game battle, play on the edge. Whether it is Brady Tkachuk or Tyler Kleven not taking the extra two in an after the whistle brew-ha-ha, the Senators are much more effective with an element of discipline in their lineup.
But on the other side of the coin, they need to be drawing the Maple Leafs into the occasional two-minuter to get their talented power play going. Tim Stutzle‘s speed needs to be a difference maker. Furthermore, Dylan Cozens or Shane Pinto net drives need to be causing havoc forcing the Leafs into precarious positions.
In any case, the Sens are in tough in this series. They need a lot of the little things through the microcosms of each time span throughout a game to go well. If they find that Toronto is able to wear them down and eventually end up in positive situations consistently, it might be a quick series. With guys like Jake Sanderson on the Sens roster, don’t bet on that happening.
Leafs Key to Victory
We believe that one of the main keys to victory for the Leafs is one defensive pairing. That pairing is the duo of Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo. We have all heard about the great work of their top pairing Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe. They’ll be tasked with eliminating Tkachuk and Stutzle from the score sheet. But what about the Sens second wave of attack, Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson? Adding a piece like Carlo cannot go understated in value.
Rielly and Carlo have compiled 220 minutes played together already. They led the Leaf pairings in xGoals% at 58.5. McCabe and Tanev, who have skated 624 minutes together, had a 55.1 xGoals%. Moreover, they’ve clearly been a steadying force, on not only their own play, but the overall distribution of head coach Craig Berube‘s line matchup strategy.
So, besides an excellent top-four defenceman group, what else do the Leafs have that stands out? At the end of the day, the Leafs have high-end talent and it’s tough to execute a linear gameplan. One reason is someone who’s been a notorious playoff ‘underperformer,’ Mitch Marner. He has the potential of being a major X-Factor. Marner has been fine overall in the playoffs throughout his career with 50 points in 57 career games. Furthermore, he’s come off a career-best regular season with 102 points. If he were to get rolling, it would make this Leafs team very dangerous as they try to get through four rounds of playoff action. First and foremost is the Sens, and if Marner is going, the Sens will find it difficult to go blow-for-blow with their provincial rival.
Our Prediction Showcasing the Leafs and the Senators
As we move onto the final predictions for who will win the series, consider the following. This series does have a Anthony Stolarz versus Linus Ullmark storyline. To that point, Stolarz actually led all NHL goaltenders in save percentage at .926 in the regular season. Also, Anthony Stolarz comes into the series on a bit of a heater. In his last eight games, he’s 8-0. Additionally, in his last four, three of those victories were by shutout decision. Ullmark had also been effective down the stretch. He finished the season on a 7-1 run, one of those being a shutout. In those games, six times he had a save percentage of .909 or better. When he’s on, Ottawa and he are tough to beat.
Another take on this series, is that it is not like the Leafs are soaked in playoff experience. In fact, if we are going tit-for-tat, Ottawa stacks up well in this respect. Michael Amadio was a key contributor to the Vegas Golden Knights playoff success in their triumphant 2023 Stanley Cup championship. Ottawa has guys like Claude Giroux and David Perron that are there to cancel out the veteran savvy of Max Pacioretty and John Tavares.
Overall, Ottawa not only matches up well against the Leafs, they play bigger against them. Given the added intensity this rivalry has been brewing over recent years, this series has all the right ingredients to be a barnburner. In the end, the Leafs talent should provide Ottawa will great learning experience in the playoffs.
The Battle of Ontario in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs kicks-off tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) from the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, as the Meccah of the hockey world takes centre stage.
Prediction: Leafs takes the series 4-3.
Game 1 Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions Playoffs Edition
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