I’ll be the first person to tell you that lineup data is tricky. While it is a valuable tool for sifting through what works and what doesn’t for any NBA team, it often doesn’t provide the whole picture and is filled with an abundance of ‘noise.’ Besides, it all comes down to sample size, and most lineups in the NBA don’t play together long enough throughout a season to reach their medium value.
Just as an example, no 5-man lineup last season played more than 1000 minutes together in the regular season. Actually, 958 minutes: the mark the Denver Nuggets starting lineup hit.
Even though it’s a bit of a crapshoot, lineup data, given the right circumstances and the proper context, can be illuminating. Ultimately, it’s the same data that coaches use as a tool when choosing between their different options throughout a season.
Looking forward, it’s a way for us viewers of the game to start imagining different combinations for teams—like a game of Tetris: picking and choosing what works and removing what you think won’t.
Let’s go through team by team and pick one intriguing lineup for each.
Note: A lineup doesn’t have to be a 5-man unit. I’ve picked a few different combinations.
Atlanta Hawks
Lineup: Jalen Johnson + Trae Young (1142 minutes played, -3.6 net rating)
By trading Dejounte Murray, the Hawks have chosen (at least in the interim) a path. One built on the foundation of the duo of Young and Johnson, an intriguing pairing that, in theory, could provide ample playmaking, shot-creation, and downhill gravity but fell short of that in their minutes together last season. As I mentioned above, this data has a lot of noise. Both players were starters and played alongside Murray, who didn’t pair well with Young through their two seasons as a duo (-6.3 in over 3000 minutes together), but this new-look Hawks team could produce a different result. Taking Murray out and slotting in Bogdan Bogdanovic or #1 overall pick Zacharrie Risacher into the starting lineup will provide more spacing and off-ball movement for Young and Johnson to make plays. Even De’Andre Hunter, who started in 37 games last season for Atlanta, is a capable shooter who knocked down nearly 39% of his threes on over five attempts in 2023-2024. The context around the duo of Trae and Jalen has improved, but it’ll ultimately come down to two things:
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- How much opportunity will Jalen Johnson get on the ball to serve as a playmaking hub?
- How much is Trae Young willing to adhere or adapt to working off the ball?
Trae Young is the best lob thrower on the Hawks (and the best lob thrower in the league), but Jalen Johnson might honestly be second best on the team.
Once Trae draws two off a middle PnR, Jalen grabs and goes and finds OO for the lob.
It helps that Kevin Love is frozen solid. pic.twitter.com/UAgCOQpr0G
— Wes (@bloghawk) April 12, 2023
Boston Celtics
Lineup: Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White (87 minutes played, +13 net rating)
The defending champions will spend the first few months of the season without their big man, Kristaps Porzingis. It shouldn’t cause too much concern. After all, Porzingis only played in 7 games in their 2024 title run, and they were actually better (by a hair) when he was off the floor statistically. Still, how does that look for an extended period? Al Horford is 38 years old and slots in as the starter, but he won’t be playing on back-to-backs. Who ends up winning that spot in the meantime? How much more of Xavier Tillman do we see? Does Neemias Queta get more run? Or do we see Head Coach Joe Mazzulla go to ol’ trusty with Luke Kornet? I understand that this may sound trivial, but having fresh legs is incredibly important when defending a championship and trying to become the first team since the 2017/2018 Warriors to repeat. Any kinks in the armor will be exploited.
Brooklyn Nets
Lineup: Nic Claxton + Noah Clowney (92 minutes played, +2.6 net rating)
The Nets will be exploring a lot this season. Without Mikal Bridges, there is no true foundational piece on this team. Still, experimentation will be key, and there are some intriguing prospects on the Nets with whom I’d like to see Head Coach Jordi Fernandez get creative this season. Defensively, this big-man duo was formidable in their short time together. Both Clowney and Claxton are versatile defenders who can guard in space, switch, and defend the rim. With those two manning the middle, the Nets will be a headache to score on, but the real intrigue comes on the offense end. Clowney showed flashes of stretching the floor, knocking down nearly 37% of his threes on a low volume of 1.7 attempts per game. If that shot becomes sustainable, this duo will become much more viable in the long term for Brooklyn and something they can lean on as the season progresses. Ultimately, I think there’s something between these two, and I want to see more of it.
Charlotte Hornets
Lineup: LaMelo Ball + Brandon Miller + Mark Williams (153 minutes played, +5.3 net rating)
Health is the big question for the Hornets this season. LaMelo Ball has played in just 58 games in the past two seasons. Big man Mark Williams played in just 19 last season. If this trio is set to be Charlotte’s core for the foreseeable future, I would like to see them in action together for an extended period (ideally the entire season). It’s easy to see how they’d all work together. LaMelo is the jumbo-ball handler who can create off the bounce and is a gifted shooter and passer. He and Williams can pair together to be a potent pick-and-roll combo, and defensively, Williams’s shot-blocking, rim-deterring ways can help alleviate some of Ball’s inconsistencies. Meanwhile, Miller ties it all together as this 3-level scoring wing who can do as much damage off the ball as he can on it and has also shown flashes of being a positive defender. I just need to see it all together: under one season and with new Head Coach Charles Lee.
Hornets – Wide Reject Spain pick-and-roll
Good way to attack drop coverage with LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams involved in the action together pic.twitter.com/JORLORKXiQ
— Brian Geisinger (@bgeis_bird) August 21, 2024
Chicago Bulls
Lineup: Josh Giddey + Zach LaVine + Coby White
I’ve come around on how Giddey might fit on this Bulls team. Imagine him as the primary ballhandler, with Coby White and LaVine working off the ball as floor spaces and secondary creators. It could theoretically make sense, right? Now, ultimately, LaVine has excelled in that department before. When healthy, he still is a highly potent off-ball scorer. White, on the other hand, thrived last season with the ball. He became a much more lethal pick-and-roll player, improved as a passer and decision-maker, and learned to run an offense as a starting point guard. Does Giddey’s addition detract from that development or make White more well-rounded by honing in on off-the-ball? The more I think about the Bulls, the more I come away with more questions than answers, but I’m fascinated to see how it all plays out. Especially with DeMar DeRozan gone, there will be loads of usage up for grabs — who is going to take it?
Cleveland Cavaliers
Lineup: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen (392 minutes played, +2.2 net rating)
In their first season together, this 4-man lineup boasted a +8.8 net rating in nearly 900 minutes played. They took a step back last season, primarily due to injuries playing half as many minutes as they did in 2022-2023. A down season for Darius Garland also contributed to that dip in effectiveness. But this season seems like the final test for this core. The hope is that new Head Coach Kenny Atkinson will squeeze any amount of juice that’s left with this lineup, inject some creativity to allow them to play double-big with Mobley and Allen, and find a way for Garland and Mitchell to co-exist as they did in their first season together. Yes, Mobley becoming more comfortable on the perimeter offensively would help solve many of their problems. But I think more than that, I want them to find more creative avenues to operate on offense. Maybe just simply playing together for longer will help in that regard. We’ll see if that happens this season.
Dallas Mavericks
Lineup: Luka Doncic + Kyrie Irving + Klay Thompson
The offensive intrigue of this lineup is somewhat obvious. But I remain fascinated by how the Mavericks will incorporate Thompson, who has been in a motion-heavy offense for his entire career, into a heliocentric offense that focuses on two ball-dominant players creating the majority of opportunities. There will be opportunities for them to use Klay as a decoy off the ball, coming off of staggered pin-downs, using his shooting gravity to draw two defenders in, and dropping it to the short-roll big as he did with Draymond Green for years. But are the Mavs willing to incorporate that? Or will Thompson resort to being a stand-in-the-corner shooter who doesn’t use the full extent of his powers? Similarly, replacing Derrick Jones Jr.’s defensive prowess at the point-of-attack with Thompson leaves me with many questions about the Mavericks’ defense, which was 7th in the league after the trade deadline.
Probably the best two-way sequence from Klay Thompson so far this season. Movement catch-and-shoot three that’s smooooth. Then switches onto Luka on the other end and forces the miss. pic.twitter.com/oEDFK6Wn5p
— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) January 26, 2022
Denver Nuggets
Lineup: Jamal Murray, Julian Strawther, Michael Porter Junior, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic (8 minutes played, +5.6 net rating)
Christian Braun will start in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s place this season. Questions pop up with that move. Braun was a good low-volume shooter last season, but how does that look when he has to take 5+ threes a game and becomes a crucial part of the Nuggets floor spacing? Enter Julian Strawther. The second-year guard did not shoot well as a rookie but shot the leather off the ball in summer league and has shown flashes of becoming, eventually, an elite-level floor spacer. Besides, Strawther’s ability to work off of dribble-hand-offs and create with the ball in his hands can replicate some of the tertiary qualities KCP had with the Nuggets.
Look at Jokic nod his head here and tell KCP to move so Strawther can get the DHO while being guarded by KD?
Of Strawther’s 545 minutes last year, 143 came with Jokic ON the floor, while 402 were without him.
More minutes with Jokic = Higher 3P% for Strawther pic.twitter.com/QGi7ZwgXMV
— Ryan Blackburn (@NBABlackburn) September 6, 2024
This is a hot take, and it’s probably because it’s September, and I have nothing better to do, but I think Strawther can eventually become the starter for this Nuggets team as soon as this season. It’ll depend on whether Michael Malone will let that happen.
Detroit Pistons
Lineup: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Simone Fontecchio, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
The trio of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Fontecchio were +2.3 in over 250 minutes together. Finding a positive lineup on a team that won 14 games is needle-in-a-haystack material, so this seems substantial. In the 16 games he played for the Pistons, Fontecchio knocked down 42% of his threes on over six attempts per game. His shooting helped provide floor spacing for both Cunningham and Ivey, making pairing the duo more tenable. Adding Harris into the mix (who admittedly has been a streaky shooter) can heighten that aspect even more and take pressure off both Cunningham and Ivey in the scoring department on any given night. The idea with this lineup is that “more shooting = more space = more possibilities for Cade and Jaden.” I want to see it in action!
Golden State Warriors
Lineup: Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green (232 minutes played, +12.2 net rating)
The Warriors’ new-look starting lineup without Klay Thompson did see some run last season and was pretty effective on both ends of the floor. That being said, 232 minutes played isn’t too big of a sample, and I’d like to see how this lineup looks after a full season. This 5-man unit lacks size, and rebounding will be an issue again for the Warriors, but I want to see what steps both Kuminga and Podz take this season to lean into their strengths offensively. Podz is an excellent rebounder for his position. He can shoot the ball and shows flashes of being a secondary playmaker. But how will that look with even more usage? Kuminga can score the ball, and it is a nice change-up to the Warriors’ motion offense, but he’ll need to become more well-rounded as a defender if they want this lineup to succeed, especially during playoff time. The Warriors are deeper this year, but this will be the starting lineup on day 1.
Houston Rockets
Lineup: Amen Thompson + Alperen Sengun (374 minutes played, -2.9 net rating)
Thompson came into his own in the second half of the season once Sengun was sidelined with a leg injury. So did Jalen Green, who had the best month of his career in March. I could’ve picked both as intriguing lineups, and truthfully, as far as future contract implications go, the Rockets will want to test the theory of whether Green and Sengun can co-exist on the same team throughout this season. But I think a subtle subplot to this is the inclusion of Thompson, who thrived as a small-ball five, making players in the short roll, getting downhill, and using his unbelievable athleticism to defend bigger players. That directly clashes with Sengun, who is a savant himself in the short-roll, turned himself into an All-star level player as a playmaking hub, and made strides as a defender as well, albeit in a more friendly context next to Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. The Rockets will eventually have to pick which young phenom they want to build around, and if Thompson and Sengun can co-exist despite some of the overlap in skillset, their answer becomes much more straightforward.
the rockets deploying amen thompson as a roller more often to end the year has been awesome pic.twitter.com/vFSvqpcIlH
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) March 20, 2024
Indiana Pacers
Lineup: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner (444 minutes played, +6.4 net rating)
This was the lineup that led the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals. But you’ll notice it doesn’t feature a key Pacers player: Bennedict Mathurin. The Canadian guard was injured for the second half of Indiana’s season and was forced to watch from the sidelines after a shaky second year. How does he get re-incorporated into a group that found so much success without him? Nembhard has firmly taken his spot as the starting guard next to Haliburton. Nesmith’s size and defensive prowess on the wing is welcomed for a group that struggled on the defensive end. There’s no real easy answer. The truth is Mathurin will have to get accustomed to coming off of the bench. And this lineup, with even more time together, could become even deadlier.
Los Angeles Clippers
Lineup: James Harden, Terance Mann, Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., Ivica Zubac
It goes without saying that losing Paul George hurts this team’s overall ceiling, especially offensively. But I am mildly intrigued by their defensive upside. Derrick Jones Jr. will add another wing defender who can defend at the point-of-attack and serve as the weak-side help. Outside of Harden, everyone in this lineup is a plus defensively. The Clippers underperformed on the defensive end, finishing 16th in defensive rating in the regular season, but I think there’s a decent chance this is a top-10 defense this year. They’ll have to rely on that as their calling card while relying on Harden and Leonard to lift them offensively — but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. And it all starts with this starting group.
Los Angeles Lakers
Lineup: Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, Anthony Davis (389 minutes played, +5.5 net rating)
It took too long for Darvin Ham to go to this starting lineup last season, and it likely cost him his job. This group was also +6.6 in the 2024 playoffs and +47.5 in a limited stretch in the 2023 playoffs. The combination of ballhandling, shot creation, and shotmaking next to LeBron and Davis just works. Ideally, their superstar duo has another healthy season so they can go to that lineup for an extended period, but my guess is this will be the starting group from day 1 for JJ Redick. The only question is: how much better will their record be if they go to it for 82 games?
Memphis Grizzlies
Lineup: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey
The Grizzlies’ core of Morant, Smart, Bane, and Jackson played only 114 minutes together last season and boasted a meager +1.6 net rating. I don’t think that indicates how good that group can be and their potential, especially on the defensive end. Alone, they lacked a bit in the size department, but they’ve partially addressed that by adding the tower presence of rookie big man Zach Edey into the mix. Edey’s screening ability, finishing, and rebounding should provide a boost offensively, similar to how Steven Adams did for the Grizzlies for years. If he can live up to his potential defensively — paired with Jackson Jr., they can be a daunting frontcourt to go up against — with Edey providing size on the interior and allowing Jackson to be the roaming, weak-side rim protector that helped him become the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year. The intrigue with this lineup comes from being excited to see a Grizzlies core of Jackson, Morant, and Bane (a group that was a combined +16 in 1400 minutes together from 2021 to 2023) back and fully healthy.
the rockets deploying amen thompson as a roller more often to end the year has been awesome pic.twitter.com/vFSvqpcIlH
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) March 20, 2024
Miami Heat
Lineup: Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Jamie Jacquez, Bam Adebayo (7 minutes played, -41.1 net rating)
This is the projected starting lineup for the Miami Heat, which didn’t get a real opportunity to get off the ground last season after they acquired Rozier at the deadline. Ultimately, this lineup should help the Heat be more potent offensively than last season when they were 21st. A good blend of shooting and extra shot creation next to Jimmy and Bam. But the crux of this season for the Heat is to find a way to balance it all and get back to the offensive style that made them the best shooting team and one of the best offensive teams in 2021. Health for Jimmy Butler would also do wonders. But I’m intrigued by this unit because it alleviates some pressure from Butler having to do it all.
Milwaukee Bucks
Lineup: Damian Lillard + Gary Trent Jr. + Khris Middleton
Point-of-attack defense was a point of contention for the Bucks last year. Doc Rivers helped them correct some of the easy stuff. They became a more conservative defense, which helped Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo play to their strengths and become a better transition defense. Still, the perimeter will be all-important for them to eventually return to being a top-10 defense. Is that feasible with Lillard, Middleton, and the newly acquired Trent Jr.? Truthfully, unlikely. But can they be even 25% better than they were last year? Trent Jr. has had moments on that side of the ball (saying that generously), and when Middleton is healthy, he has a propensity to do the same. But perhaps with a full training camp, Doc can answer that question creatively. I wouldn’t hold my breath, though.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Lineup: Rob Dillingham + Anthony Edwards
It’s hard to nitpick any lineups with this team. Their starters got better last season. Even though the offense could look better sometimes, there is a clear vision for how that could happen: Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns need to improve as decision-makers and playmakers. So, let’s have some fun instead. The future backcourt of this team will be Edwards and Rob Dillingham. Mike Conley, god bless his soul, is 36 years old. How does a 6-foot-3 guard like Dillingham, who will be a firecracker offensively, mesh with Edwards, who is about as dynamic as it gets from a shooting guard? Does Dillingham survive defensively? How much does that impact their viability as a backcourt in the long term? We won’t get all of these answers this year, but I am at least curious to see how much Dillingham can contribute this season to a team with ambitions of a championship.
New Orleans Pelicans
Lineup: Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson
I have no idea what the starting lineup will be for the Pelicans. They don’t have a center that has me sold that he could be the permanent starting big for a playoff team. Maybe Yves Missi becomes that. Maybe Daniel Theis, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, or Karlo Matkovic will surprise us. But it feels unlikely. So why not just lean more into small ball? This 5-man unit is potent defensively at the point-of-attack with Murray, Jones, and Murphy hounding offensive players on the perimeter. Depending on how long Ingram is on this team, his length could be an asset off the ball. The long-term viability of this lineup comes down to how taxing this could be on Zion’s body. But consider this:
Zion played a career-high 14% of his minutes last season at center, according to Cleaning The Glass. The Pelicans were +10 in those minutes. Still, doing that for 82 games and for 40% of the time instead is a big adjustment. Perhaps, for that reason, this isn’t the starting lineup but potentially a potent, often-used, and relied-upon unit that can serve as a change-up. It’s a lineup for the nerds if you will. But if the Pelicans lean into it, it would be entertaining to watch basketball.
Also, this lineup moves CJ McCollum to the bench where, in my opinion, he could be a stellar 6th man who could provide a massive spark offensively to their transitional lineups. Again, there are more questions than answers with the Pelicans this season, especially with the Ingram situation looming over their head. I’m not entirely sure we’ll receive many answers to start the year, either. That makes them the most fascinating and dumbfounding teams in the league. Either way, give me small ball or give me death!
New York Knicks:
Lineup: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Julius Randle
I should preface this blurb: Tom Thibodeau likely will never do this. However, the Knicks have a center rotation of Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, which may be a source of problems if Robinson misses any time this season. So, let’s experiment?
If they lean into it, the Knicks have multiple lineup combinations that could work in a small-ball setting. I wrote down the one that includes DiVincenzo for a pinch of more floor spacing, but this lineup could be equally dynamic with Josh Hart in his place- who could add a major boost on the glass as a rebounder. Defensively, the idea would be that they would be so connected on the perimeter that it results in its own level of rim deterrence. The solution? Don’t let teams get to the rim. And this unit could viably achieve that. Besides, both Anunoby and Bridges have shown an ability to be weak-side rim protectors and cause havoc off the ball. I believe in this group immensely. I implore Thibodeau to lean into it. It’s feasible. And it has the potential to be dominant.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Lineup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
It hurt my soul to take Lugentz Dort out of this lineup. But it shows you how deep this championship-contending roster is and how versatile they can be. Any variation of this lineup + Dort can make sense. What intrigues me about this particular unit is the double-big look with Hartenstein and Holmgren and how that might change Chet’s position on both ends of the floor. He found so much success as the main anchor of their defense.
How does that change if he’s the weak-side help instead? It can be dominantly paired alongside a potent drop-big like Haretenstein. Offensively, he’ll have to stretch the floor more than he did last season (37% on four attempts) and improve at beating defenders off the bounce. But it’s something I’m sure Head Coach Mark Daigneault will get creative with, which makes this exciting. Equally as intriguing is how Caruso morphs this team’s point-of-attack defense. Paired alongside any combination of SGA, Dort, J-Dub, or Cason Wallace — there really is no way they can go wrong. On offense, his ability to knock down threes (41% on 4.7 attempts last season) and make the extra pass will add some oomph to their offense.
All in all, I’m just excited. Like the Knicks, this team is going to be wildly versatile. Unlike the Knicks, their Coach will be more than willing to try stuff.
The Thunder roster has more “plus players” (ones with a positive Synergy Player Impact) than any other team in the league. pic.twitter.com/IXuxY3Wj7u
— Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper) September 16, 2024
Orlando Magic
Lineup: Jalen Suggs + Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Watching these two defend at the point of attack will be a treat. They are the perfect yin and yang. Suggs is the opportunistic and often haphazard defender who leaps and hurls his way into passing lanes for steals, using his hands to poke out the ball and is the fiery lightning bolt that propelled the Magic to a top-3 defense last season. KCP, on the other hand, is the trusty, cool, calm, and collected type. He is incredible at staying connected off the ball and chasing around shooters. He understands where to be positionally at all times, and pairing that type of trusty, reliable defender with Suggs’ chaos engine will be incredible.
Philadelphia 76ers
Lineup: Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre, Paul George, Caleb Martin, Joel Embiid
Alright, let’s see how this looks. The Sixers spent loads of money this off-season. They upgraded their wings in a major way with the additions of Paul George, Caleb Martin, and Eric Gordon, and they retained Kelly Oubre, the best-value signing in the NBA last season. That is an excellent platoon to surround Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey on both ends of the floor. The strides Maxey took last year as a playmaking and self-creator put him squarely in the conversation for best sidekick in the NBA, and Embiid, when healthy, consistently produces MVP seasons.
Ultimately, it comes down to health. Both George and Embiid have been known to miss time throughout the season, which may impact the sample size for this specific lineup. Nevertheless, the spacing around Embiid will be pristine, with Maxey, Oubre, George, and Martin being good-to-capable shooters. At the same time, the lineup is under-sized defensively, but both George and Martin are plus rebounders for their position who can switch and guard bigger players.
Phoenix Suns
Lineup: Tyus Jones + Devin Booker
Devin Booker was the Suns’ nominal point guard last season. His touch time per possession and average dribbles per touch were both at a career high. He was excellent in that role and, over the last few years, has really learned how to bend, manipulate, and shift defenses as the primary ballhandler. For better or worse, though, the Suns lacked a bit of creativity on the offensive end as far as involving their three-headed monster of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Booker — who’s off-ball brilliance seemed to shine less last season with the uptick in ballhandling duties. Insert Tyus Jones—one of the league’s most effective, mistake-free, pass-first guards.
With a true table-setter, newly appointed Head Coach Mike Budenholzer can run actions where Durant, Beal, and Booker will move off the ball, using their shooting gravity to bend defenses. All three can be used as on-ball screeners, and I like the idea of Booker flaring out a Spain PnR to get the Suns’ offense in motion. Jones, for his part, had to explore becoming more of a scorer in his one season in Washington, and ideally, that’ll help keep defenses honest as he probes to find the scoring trio. But there’s a good chance he will become one of the best value signings in the league this season.
Portland Trail Blazers
Lineup: Deni Avdija + Deandre Ayton
I could’ve picked a few different lineup options with the Blazers because they are a wholly confusing team. My first thought was to pick the trio of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons, but they played 66 minutes last year and had a -34.7 net rating. How those three guards develop, who Portland prioritizes, and how much they clash stylistically will be a question for next season and the long term as they build out this core.
But then I thought about the frontcourt and was equally as confused. The Blazers starting frontcourt was Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant. They have now added Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan into the mix. Who starts from that group? Does Grant slide down to the three, and Avdija start at the four? Does Clingan eventually get the nod over Ayton? How much does Head Coach Chauncey Billups experiment with Clingan-Ayton lineups?
The most intriguing question, however, was the pairing of Avdija and Ayton. Deni’s improved shot-making and tertiary creation can prove useful next to Ayton’s shot-making and rim-running abilities. It might not even be a stretch to say that Advija might be the most apt playmaker on the Blazers roster, and I think, even more generally, having him create will open up off-ball opportunities for Simons and Sharpe to roam around. How that clashes with Scoot, who does most of his damage on the ball, will be a question. It will require some creativity — but this is a fun group that can play some really unique basketball if appropriately positioned.
Deni Avdija’s no-look dime finds Kuz for the slam @WashWizards and Kings on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/L8Rrlv9ZoR pic.twitter.com/bnVlfruCeM
— NBA (@NBA) February 13, 2022
Sacramento Kings
Lineup: DeMar DeRozan + Domantas Sabonis
It’s easy to see how DeRozan and Sabonis would work together offensively. DeRozan’s ability to work in the mid-range, work off of screens or hand-offs, and slice his way through crevices of defenses has made him a top-25 scorer all time. Pairing that ability with Sabonis, who is excellent as a rolling partner, working in hand-offs and finishing around the basket is a match made in heaven. I’m mostly curious about the defensive tenability of this duo and the infrastructure required to make it make sense. DeRozan lacks in the ‘fighting over screens’ category, and while Sabonis is an excellent rebounder and does what he can as a rim protector, it could leave the Kings prone to many downhill attacks from teams with great athletes on the wings. I’m higher on DeRozan’s fit on the Kings than most, but the defense is a valid concern that must be addressed this season.
San Antonio Spurs
Lineup: Chris Paul + Devin Vassell + Victor Wembanyama
The Vassell, Wemby, and Tre Jones trio were +9 in over 800 minutes. That number dropped down to -16 when Jones was off the floor. I think that illuminates just how important it was for Wemby and Vassell to play next to a table-setting, mistake-free point guard. There might not be a player in NBA history that fits that description more than Chris Paul. Even at 39 years old, Paul is more than capable of running the offense for a young, developing team that is still trying to learn how to win. If anything, having more Jones and Paul there to set up Vassell and Wemby should elevate the teams’ floor by having one on the court at all times. Fun times are ahead in San Antonio.
Toronto Raptors
Lineup: Davion Mitchell + Immanuel Quickley
After trading away OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, point-of-attack defense became a very apparent issue for the Toronto Raptors. It forced them to promptly trade for Ochai Agbaji and Davion Mitchell while also drafting Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter in hopes of finding stalwart defenders to surround their potent defensive frontcourt in Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Their best chance at being adept on the perimeter defensively is a backcourt of Mitchell and Immanuel Quickley. Mitchell’s stout frame and quick feet help him guard up in position. Meanwhile, Quickley’s best skill set is off the ball, and he uses his length and awareness to be a formidable team defender.
We didn’t see that side of Quickley in his time in Toronto (for the reasons mentioned above), and Mitchell’s presence might be able to enhance that aspect of IQ’s game. Even offensively, this duo is intriguing because it allows Quickley to roam off the ball more and be used as a movement shooter — one of his best and most known qualities. I want the Raptors to lean on this pairing + RJ Barrett, Barnes, and Poeltl as their closing lineup. And if Mitchell can continue to improve as a shooter from outside (he shot 36% on a career-low 2.2 attempts per game last year), then it becomes even more viable.
Utah Jazz
Lineup: Lauri Markkanen + Walker Kessler (671 minutes played, -0.7 net rating)
Between Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Brice Sensabaugh, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski, and Cody Williams — the Jazz have six 1st or 2nd-year players that will likely be in their rotation in some capacity. That is a LOT of youth to try and juggle all at once, and development will be at the forefront of what they try to accomplish this season. That being said, I think figuring out what they already have with their core — particularly in their frontcourt — should be a priority, given the reported rumors around the teams’ lack of commitment to Kessler, who started in just 22 games last season.
The minutes with him and Markkanen haven’t been eye-popping by any means, but I think it gives them tons of size to get creative with. Head Coach Will Hardy has no problem experimenting, and I imagine with Kelly Olynyk and Simone Fontecchio shipped out, the Jazz will try to figure out which frontcourt partner works best with Lauri: Kessler or the 2nd year prospect Hendricks.
Washington Wizards
Lineup: Alex Sarr + Jonas Valanciunas
Similar to the Jazz, I’m really curious about how the Wizards frontcourt looks at the start of the year. It’s unlikely that Valanciunas will finish the season in Washington, but I think the Wizards made this signing with one idea: they want to bring Sarr along slowly. The physicality of the NBA, especially on the interior, is no joke, and Sarr was seemingly pretty apprehensive to contact in the NBL and in the Summer League offensively. While he has the tools to be a unique and versatile defender, Sarr is the weak-side helper in an ideal world, using his length on the second side to contest and block shots. Maybe that changes, but for now, I think this indicates how the Wizards view Sarr and his skill set in the long term. I’m curious to see how it plays out in year one.
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