No. 9 Wake Forest blew an 18-point lead this afternoon, falling in a wild shootout to North Carolina, 55-52. The loss extinguished the surprising Demon Deacons’ playoff hopes, and likely the College Football Playoff hopes of the ACC as a whole.
If the league fails to get a team in the four-team field, it will be the first time in the eight-year history of the four-team field. Florida State reached the inaugural College Football Playoff in 2014, and Clemson has made it every year since, winning two national titles during the impressive run.
Down the road, a team like Wake Forest may still be alive. It certainly appears that the Playoff will expand in the coming years, though the number of teams remains a question. A 12-team field has plenty of momentum, and nearly became a reality before concerns stemming from Oklahoma and Texas’ move to the SEC slowed down the process, with the ACC being one of the leagues more hesitant to go beyond eight teams. Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustratedbelieves today’s result could change that.
“If there’s anything to convince the conference to vote for a 12-team playoff, Wake Forest provided it on Saturday,” Dellenger writes. “With its perennial power struggling (Clemson has three losses already) and Pitt having coughed things up (the Panthers lost to Miami last week), the ACC is in a dire situation, no matter how many teams are in a playoff.
If there’s any season to convince college football executives that a 12-team expansion is needed, it’s this one. Especially the ACC.
Wake’s loss likely means no ACC team in the CFP for the first time since its inception.
The league needs 12, not 8.https://t.co/JLmB36DlZd
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) November 6, 2021
“In an eight-team format that advances the eight highest-ranked teams, the league wouldn’t qualify a team this year (barring some stunning collapses from a host of others). In fact, even in a 12-team playoff—featuring the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large spots—the league would, at most, advance to the postseason just one team, its champion (maybe) through automatic qualification.”
The eight vs. 12 debate has made strange bedfellows of leagues like the SEC, which could dominate a 12-team field in good years, and the Group of Five, which would have their first true access to the national title picture.
The ACC and Big Ten, meanwhile, have resisted making that big a leap, for a number of reasons including the possibility of one league—like the SEC—dominating the field. As Dellenger points out, however, even an eight-team field wouldn’t necessarily get the ACC in this year. And ultimately, money often wins out when these debates occur, and 12 beats eight there as well.
An eight-team playoff generates no new TV inventory in the final two years of the contract (2024–25). A 12-team playoff would generate an additional $450 million. Ever seen a group of savvy business people—of which the commissioners are—turn down that chunk of cash?
If all of the powers that be can agree on a new format, we could see the College Football Playoff expand by 2024, but they need a total consensus by January. If the ACC is one of the major roadblocks, perhaps Mack Brown and the Tar Heels did the rest of the college football world a big favor today.
[Sports Illustrated]