A look at games that might pique your interest
Happy Thanksgiving, you turkeys! Thanks for sticking with us here at BTP this year through the ups and downs. It’s been a… well… a wild ride. Would really appreciate it if the football team decided to treat us to an easygoing 10-win season one of these years, but oh well.
I hope you and your family and well and have a lot to be thankful for this week! Now get ready to eat some turkey, drink some [insert beverage of choice], and watch a ton of really awesome football!
No, seriously, this week is loaded. Get ready.
Thursday night features two of the AAC’s best teams in Memphis and Tulane. It’s a shame Tulane dropped two early season games because this team has come together really well and is likely the best G5 team, but won’t get a shot at the CFP unless Boise slips. The Green Wave’s two losses are to Kansas State (Tulane led by 7 in the 4th quarter) and to Oklahoma (Tulane trailed by just 5 midway through the 4th quarter). Memphis is really good, with this game likely to be better than the Dolphins-Packers game Thursday night – and definitely better than the Giants-Cowboys game that same day.
Eight (nine, if you’re gracious) games on Friday have either potential conference title game implications or potential CFP implications. Let’s take a look.
As mentioned in the above blurb about the Thursday game, Boise State currently sits in the driver’s seat for the G5 auto-CFP bid. They just need to keep winning. Oregon State is horrendous this year since D.J. Uiagalelei made the poor decision to transfer out after last year.
Colorado sits in a four-way tie atop the Big XII standings with a 6-2 conference record. There are another five teams sitting with 5-3 records. None of the four teams at the top play each other this week, so there could be some serious chaos if all four lose. Oklahoma State is a surprising 0-8 in Big XII play this year (they were ranked #17 preseason), so this is going to be hilarious if they top the Buffaloes.
Miami (OH) and Bowling Green are two of the three MAC teams tied atop the league standings at 6-1. Obviously the winner of that game goes to the league title game. The other team tied with them is Ohio, who takes on a pretty awful Ball State squad that already fired their head coach. Easy money is on Ohio playing opposite the winner of the RedHawks and Falcons. Should Ohio lose, Buffalo is sitting at 5-2 with a game against Kent State (the worst team in FBS) to add some chaos to it.
Yes, Ole Miss technically still has a CFP chance despite being 8-3 right now. Each of their three losses have come by three points, but two of those losses are two unranked teams and the third is to a slumping LSU team. Mississippi State is horrible, so a win here shouldn’t be an issue, but the Rebels will need a lot to go in their favor to back their way into the CFP.
Liberty and Sam Houston State are tied with Western Kentucky in a three-way tie for 2nd place in Conference USA (Jacksonville State has already wrapped up 1st place and a spot in the conference championship game). If Liberty wins, they’ll be in regardless as they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over WKU. If SHSU wins, they’ll need WKU to lose to Jacksonville State on Saturday to make their way into the title game. If SHSU wins and WKU beats Jacksonville State on Saturday, then we’ll get a Gamecocks-Hilltoppers rematch for the conference crown a week later.
Colorado State is tied with UNLV for 2nd place behind Boise State (already locked up a spot in the title game thanks to a head-to-head win over the Runnin’ Rebels). The Rams and Rebs didn’t play head-to-head this year, so a win for each this week will put in place a tiebreaker scenario. In case you’re wondering, Utah State is not very good, but they’ve played a tough schedule and are 3-1 in their last four games. UNLV plays last-place Nevada (0-6 in conference).
If South Alabama wins it’ll put them in a potential scenario to win the Sun Belt West if Louisiana loses Saturday to UL-Monroe. South Alabama beat Louisiana head-to-head, but lose to the team they’re currently tied for second in the division with (Arkansas State). Should USA win, Louisiana lose, and Arky State win, there will be a three-way tie that’ll go to a tiebreaker scenario.
Georgia’s in good shape for an SEC title appearance and a CFP spot, but an at-large spot in the latter is likely gone should they lose to Georgia Tech.
Okay, all that is just Friday! Now let’s get to Saturday.
Ohio State’s in the CFP regardless of the outcome of the game against Michigan, but they’ll likely miss out on a Big Ten title game appearance with a loss (Indiana plays hapless Purdue and Penn State plays Maryland – the chances both of them lose is next to zero). The most expensive NIL team in the nation missing their conference title game? Yeesh.
The winner of the South Carolina at Clemson game may well put themselves into the CFP as an at-large bid. Of course, Clemson’s hoping for Miami to also slip up on Saturday so the Tigers can sneak into the ACC title game. Even without, a 10-2 Clemson squad with a win over a South Carolina team that was surging? That’s a good place to be. For the Gamecocks, they’d be 9-3 but with the three losses all being ranked foes (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama), with two of those losses coming by a total of five points. There’s a chance they get in (unlikely, but still a chance).
Baylor is one of those myriad Big XII teams with a chance at making the conference title game. Kansas, meanwhile, has beaten three straight ranked teams, with all three currently tied for first in the conference. Crown Kansas the chaos champions.
Yes, both Texas Tech and West Virginia are teams with a chance in the wild Big XII, both currently at 5-3 in league play.
Notre Dame is in a really good spot at 10-1, but can they survive a loss to a 6-5 USC? Do you really think the CFP committee wouldn’t take the chance to bump them out for a 3-loss SEC team?
Alabama’s slimmer of hope rests on beating Auburn. The advanced metrics like the Tigers a lot more than you’d think based on their 5-6 record.
Miami has to beat Syracuse to make it to the ACC title game. A win over the Orange should also put them into the CFP.
SMU is already in the ACC title game and squarely in the CFP right now, but if the Mustangs lose this week to Cal and then lose in the ACC championship game? Don’t give the CFP an opportunity because they’ll absolutely take it. (By the way, that’s exactly the scenario that all those three-loss SEC teams are rooting for).
Arizona State is another of those Big XII teams. Arizona is not good this year, but it’s a rivalry game in a league with a stupid amount of parity.
We already mentioned the Jax State and WKU game, so no need to rehash here.
[Side note: It’s crazy that we’re just glossing over a Florida-FSU game – and that it’s getting the ESPN2 treatment – but here we are. In that same vein is Oklahoma-LSU.]
Oregon is in the Big Ten title game and will make the CFP even if they lose this week and in that B1G championship game.
Texas A&M can play their way into the CFP with a win over Texas to make the SEC title game and then a win there. Texas should be in the CFP regardless, but will miss the SEC championship game with a loss to the Aggies.
Kansas State vs Iowa State. Two Big XII teams, so yes, two teams with conference championship chances. By the way, they may be the best two Big XII teams, so this one is actually a game worth watching.
No title game or CFP implications, but does the head coach of the loser of Virginia Tech at Virginia get fired? Both coaches we hired in the same coaching cycle, so this would be interesting. As stated, I think VT is on the right path with Brent Pry, but folks are getting restless up there.
Marshall currently sits atop the Sun Belt East, so a win over James Madison puts the Herd into the Sun Belt title game, but a loss coupled with a Georgia Southern win over App State would keep them out. Crazy that a JMU team that hung 70 points on UNC lost three league games, right?
What is that? A late night Big XII game with conference title implications? You betcha. This time with a BYU team currently tied for 1st! So, yes, that league championship game matchup might not be decided until the early hours of Sunday morning.
Go Wolfpack! GTHC!
Rankings for SP+ Ratings (here’s the SP+ ranking for all college football teams) and Sagarin Ratings listed, respectively, ahead of each team’s name.
Thursday
40/60 Memphis @ 27/22 Tulane – 7:30pm – ESPN
Friday
71/78 Navy @ 72/92 East Carolina – 12:00pm – ESPN
99/100 Oregon State @ 25/33 Boise State – 12:00pm – FOX
78/65 Oklahoma State @ 33/23 Colorado – 12:00pm – ABC
39/35 Minnesota @ 59/43 Wisconsin – 12:00pm – CBS
70/83 Miami (OH) @ 63/85 Bowling Green – 12:00pm – ESPNU
126/146 Ball State @ 77/77 Ohio – 12:00pm – CBSSN
87/86 Mississippi State @ 2/5 Ole Miss – 3:30pm – ABC
62/90 Liberty @ 97/112 Sam Houston State – 3:30pm – CBSSN
105/101 Utah State @ 86/88 Colorado State – 3:30pm – FS1
49/69 Texas State @ 56/80 South Alabama – 3:30pm – ESPN+
101/97 Stanford @ 92/103 San Jose State – 4:00pm – CBS
61/49 Georgia Tech @ 5/4 Georgia – 7:30pm – ABC
55/37 Nebraska @ 17/19 Iowa – 7:30pm – NBC
52/47 Utah @ 54/45 UCF– 8:00pm – FOX
Saturday
32/29 Michigan @ 1/1 Ohio State – 12:00pm – FOX
9/9 Tennessee @ 51/54 Vanderbilt – 12:00pm – ABC
14/12 South Carolina @ 15/17 Clemson – 12:00pm – ESPN
19/25 Louisville @ 46/50 Kentucky – 12:00pm – SEC Network
43/51 Duke @ 90/91 Wake Forest – 12:00pm – ACC Network
41/21 Kansas @ 36/32 Baylor – 12:00pm – ESPN2
58/40 West Virginia @ 65/42 Texas Tech – 12:00pm – FS1
47/56 Pittsburgh @ 66/52 Boston College – 3:00pm – CW
60/67 NC State @ 44/64 North Carolina – 3:30pm – ACC Network
7/2 Notre Dame @ 23/27 USC – 3:30pm – CBS
24/36 Auburn @ 6/7 Alabama – 3:30pm – ABC
8/10 Miami @ 53/53 Syracuse – 3:30pm – ESPN
38/55 California @ 13/11 SMU – 3:30pm – ESPN2
48/30 Arizona State @ 79/71 Arizona – 3:30pm – FOX
29/41 Arkansas @ 21/26 Missouri – 3:30pm – SEC Network
74/93 Jacksonville State @ 67/99 Western Kentucky – 4:00pm – ESPNU
28/20 Florida @ 85/81 Florida State – 7:00pm – ESPN2
26/16 Oklahoma @ 22/24 LSU – 7:00pm – ESPN
50/46 Washington @ 3/6 Oregon – 7:30pm – NBC
4/3 Texas @ 12/15 Texas A&M – 7:30pm – ABC
16/13 Kansas State @ 20/18 Iowa State – 7:30pm – FOX
81/73 Virginia @ 31/39 Virginia Tech – 8:00pm – ACC Network
69/72 Marshall @ 37/70 James Madison – 8:00pm – ESPNU
98/74 Houston @ 18/28 BYU – 10:15pm – ESPN
115/105 Air Force @ 117/128 San Diego State – 10:30pm – FS1