NC State will look to get back in the win column against the Spartans
After a 3-5 start to the season, NC State has reeled off wins in 14 of their last 16 games, and will look to keep the good times rolling against USC Updates Tuesday night in Raleigh at 6:00pm. The game will be broadcast on the ACCNX. Stats can be found here.
The Spartans (RPI #118) enter on a four-game winning streak, including a midweek victory over Wofford last Wednesday and a series sweep at Charleston Southern this past weekend. Their season record sits at 12-11, with a 3-3 mark in Big South play (they were swept at home by Radford two weekends ago).
USC Upstate does have a bit of ACC experience on the ledger, with a season-opening 10-7 win over Boston College, as well as a 9-11 loss to the Eagles in the other game of that series and a 0-7 loss at Clemson at the beginning of the month. The Spartans actually out-hit the Tigers in that loss, 9-to-8, although it obviously mattered not a bit in the outcome.
The lineup for the Spartans has carried their own with a collective line of .320/.425/.519, 47 2B, 36 HR, 11.2 BB%, 17.9 K%, 32-47 SB. Aside from maybe slowing down on the stolen base attempts so they stop running themselves into outs, it’s hard to complain about that level of productivity. USC Upstate has scored 7+ runs in 17-of-23 games. Seven runs isn’t some magical number, but I’ll come back to it in a bit.
SO SS Vance Sheahan (.356/.417/.529, 9 2B, 3 HR, 7.8 BB%, 13.0 K%, 11-14 SB), rSO CF Scott Newman (.360/.447/.652, 2 2B, 8 HR, 8.7 BB%, 26.0 K%, 7-13 SB), and table-setting rFR LF Henry Zenor (.366/.466/.493, 6 2B, 1 HR, 13.6 BB%, 8.0 K%, 3-6 SB) are the leaders of the offense, but there’s certainly more to the lineup than just those three. Of the 11 players with more than 20 plate appearances on the year, nine are sporting batting averages of .282 or higher. That collective team batting average ranks 15th in all of D1.
Let’s get back to why that 7-run figure matters (or doesn’t… it probably doesn’t). Spartans pitchers have a combined 5.22 ERA over 205.0 IP to go along with a collective 10.4 BB% and 21.3 K%. Plating seven runs in a game should push USC Upstate to a win more times than not, and having hit that mark in 17 games, you’d expect the Spartans to be somewhere around 17-6 right now, but the record sits at just 12-11.
Some of that can be explained by the feast-or-famine nature of the pitching staff. USC Upstate has surrendered 9+ runs in 10 games this year while holding their opponent to five or fewer runs in another 10 games. The reason for that divide can be chalked up to a 15.7% HR/FB (fly ball) ratio which ranks among the 15 worst in D1 baseball (NC State is also in that group with a 16.0 HR/FB%, but Pack pitchers’ fly ball rate is almost 10.0% lower than USC Upstate’s, resulting in State surrendering 14 fewer long balls to this point in the season). Basically, the underlying numbers are strong, but the Spartans are giving up taters far too often.
The starting rotation appears to have found something in rSO RHP Amp Phillips (1-0, 2 SV, 3.52 ERA, 23.0 IP, 11.3 BB%, 23.7 K%) who moved into a starting role with the onset of Big South play. SO LHP Chris Torres (3-3, 4.55 ERA, 29.2 IP, 6.2 BB%, 25.3 K%) can be the staff ace, but has been inconsistent this year. The group is a bit in flux trying to figure out that rotation and then build the bullpen around them. There’s some talent there, but it’s a thin group and will need some of the depth pieces to step up if this group is going to make some noise in the Big South this year.
USC Upstate has not made an NCAA Regional since joining the D1 ranks in 2008. The Spartans have been close the last few years, with three regular season Big South runner-up finishes in the last four years and runner-up conference tournament finishes in each of the last two seasons. This offense is good enough that it could be the group to break through if the team can find the pitching to support it.