In a sense, Mack Brown began his journey back to unemployment in earnest during the spring, when he brought quarterback Jacolby Criswell back from Arkansas.
Criswell left UNC because he couldn’t find playing time, and he didn’t find any at Arkansas either—bringing in someone like this at the end of April is usually not a great sign for your quarterback situation. Some might be alarmed, even. (Not me, though. I was very encouraged by the development.)
Criswell may well have spent another fall as a backup if Max Johnson hadn’t gotten hurt in the opener, though I figure it more likely they’d have spent the season trading the starting spot along with iffy performances.
The inability to find a successor to an NFL-caliber quarterback has sunk many a head football coach through the years (see also: Chuck Amato), and Mack plainly was in some significant trouble before the season began. The season didn’t end up a complete disaster based on this shortcoming, but in the end, as far as Mack’s tenure is concerned, the result was the same.
The primary reason it didn’t end up a disaster is Omarion Hampton, who is due this weekend to hit 1,500 yards rushing for the second straight season. Just take a look at this team’s offensive radar and compare the passing categories to the rushing ones:
Hampton is an NFL player without doubt, and he leads one of the most efficient run games in the country. NC State did a fine job against him last year (9 carries, 28 yards) and will need to contain him to at least some extent in order to wrong-foot the UNC offense on Saturday.
It’s not necessary to shut him down completely—he ran for 100+ in four of the team’s five losses—and anyway that’s unlikely, as his lowest yardage total is 53 against BC (on only 11 carries). But State’s defense has got to be consistently good to put that offense in disadvantageous spots and force the Heels to lean on their not-so-great passing game more than they’d like.
UNC’s defense is about the same as it ever was, which is another reason why the school is in the market for a new coach. Mack Brown’s good recruiting efforts extended to this side of the ball as well, at least on paper, but the unit hasn’t been able to shake a soft character on the field, though multiple defensive coordinators have tried to make a difference. Without a standout at quarterback to help overcome the issues on defense, it’s not surprising that the win total has taken a hit.
The Heels made some strides on defense this season, they just aren’t dramatic—the pass defense has been a bit better, and ranks 35th in success rate, thanks to a pretty good pass rush. But shortcomings elsewhere have been fatal at times, mostly against the ground game. The Heels don’t stuff a lot of runs (they are among the bottom five in FBS here) and have given up explosives at an above-average rate. You never quite know what you’re gonna get out of them against the run, but over the last couple of months there’s been more bad than good.
As for how it all stacks up tomorrow, well, who the hell knows. Both teams have substantial problems, and both have been inconsistent. NC State has shown an incredible ability to self-inflict wounds and squander opportunities. UNC has a defense that sometimes forgets to show up. What will happen when these two thoroughly average-looking teams clash?