How many players do we need, and just how much money are we talking about?
Welcome Coach Wade!
Here it comes!
The official dates for the transfer portal are the 30 days beginning next Monday, March 24. Last season Verbal Commits finished with 2,078 D1 players listed in the portal. In the ACC, that worked out to averaging more than 6 players per school transferring.
With the advent of revenue $haring on the horizon, that number should grow this season as will the cost per player. Taking a quick look at Verbal Commits, as of 3/16 there were already 163 D1 players listed. Now that the conference tournaments are over, the pace will accelerate.
Combining NC State’s losing season with the head coaching change, there are no guarantees about who might return even if they do have eligibility. The one thing we know for sure is in order to be competitive in the ACC and nationally, we need a serious infusion of talent.
Who’re you going to keep?
- If your answer is, “nobody”, that’s reasonable. Hill is the only returning frequent starter, and I’m not sure how many top tier teams he’d start for. McNeil (3 starts) and T Parker (1 start) each started and got more minutes late in the season, they’ve got potential but they aren’t ready to start next season. Coach Wade may prefer a clean slate.
- If you’re thinking of keeping players that might develop into starters, or who might fill a valuable role off the bench, that too is reasonable, and obviously you’d consider this season’s freshmen. McNeil’s probably at the top of your list and T Parker is as well. I hope they stick around. Neither Hill nor DPJ will start for a top tier team unless they fix their outside shot, and the clock is ticking. Heard has already said he’s moving on – not binding and maybe an emotional response to Coach Keatts’ departure – but he might be gone. We didn’t see a lot of Diouf but as a third-year player, I think we hoped for more.
- Of the incoming freshmen, Greer has height but is only a 3-star player. He’s got potential. As a senior, he shot 50.9% / 38.7% / 85.7% and scored 17.8 ppg. Zymicah Wilkins is one of Coach Keatts’ better recruits. He was named Mr Basketball NC, he averaged 15.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, and 2.0 steals. As a senior, he shot 56% / 32% / 67%. He was a 4 year double digit scorer. While Greer might be worth looking at a little closer before deciding, Wilkins looks like a keeper. However, is he a smaller center or bigger power forward? And how would his size fit into the new offense?
- What about Mike James? My uninformed guess is, with both his closest friend on the team, Huntley-Hatfield, and his coach gone, he probably isn’t too attached to the program and might want a fresh start. As documented later in this article, coaches generally think James’ position is easy to replace, so why take a chance on him? Coach Wade might apply the ‘bird in the hand’ rule, and if he’s not too expensive, make him an offer.
Can you build a quality team via the transfer portal?
Why yes you can! AP #10 Louisville is a case study on this topic. They were 8-24 / 3-17 last season. Step one, you pick up an excellent mid-major coach from the College of Charleston (ACC COY Pat Kelsey), second you $weeten the NIL pot sufficiently, and lastly you recruit an entire roster – including Honorable Mention All American / first team All-ACC / ACC DPOY Chucky Hepburn and All-ACC third team Terrance Edwards Jr – all of whom are transfers except Top 50 freshman Khani Rooths. Result? Things are looking much better, 27-7 / 18-2 with 4 Q1 wins and a #8 seed (should have been higher) in the NCAA Tournament.
If you look at the just announced 2025 All American team, you’ll see that transfers account for 9 of the first (3 / 5), second (4 / 5) and third teams (2 / 5). 14 of those 15 teams are in the NCAA Tournament, Villanova being the exception – and they fired their coach.
So just how much is this new roster going to cost?
According to numerous online sources, NC State spent around $2.5 million on the 2024-2025 team. If it can be believed, the ACC is set to spend more per school on men’s basketball ($4.4 million) than any conference other than the Big East. That alone will not be enough.
“In this portal, I think you’ll need a minimum of $4.5 million,” a coach in the ACC said. “And that’s if you do a hell of a job evaluating.” After talking for a little bit, that same coach added, “To be safe, it’ll be about $6 million to be a top-25 team.”
That range seemed to be consistent with what coaches around the college basketball landscape suggested.
“To be a top 25 caliber team, you’re going to have to be around $4 to $5 million,” an SEC coach said. A former coach in the Big 12 shared the same though, “It’ll be no less than $5 million to be in the top 25.”
As part of a proposed settlement, athletic departments will be allowed to share their revenue (media rights, sponsorships, ticket sales, etc.) with their athletes beginning in 2025. The proposed rev share plan is that schools can pay their athletes directly, up to a cap of 20.5 million for all sports.
Even with the proposed rev share model expected this upcoming season, college coaches expect it will take more to compete. A coach in the ACC said, “Will probably be between $6 and $7 million for a team to compete.”
Allocating NIL funds across the roster: Which position can you expect to use the most NIL in the Transfer Portal?
With major college programs expecting to allocate between $4 and $8 million in NIL, the next big question is: which position will consume the most resources?
“Bigs are the most expensive position in the portal,” a coach in the A10 was quoted as saying. “A center with stats is tough to get. At a minimum, you’re looking at $600k, and that is on the lower end.” As the conversation progressed, the coach emphasized the scarcity of proven centers. “Really good big men, who are proven, are at a premium every portal cycle.”
A coach in the SEC reiterated that point, “I expect schools in my league to go over $1 million for a good big man. One who already has proven production in college could go for a good bit more.”
An ACC coach emphasized, “Good bigs are easily the most expensive. They’ll go for between $1.5 and $2 million.”
While big men are getting plenty of attention, a few coaches also highlighted the opposite end of the lineup, point guards.
A former Big 12 coach shared, “The point guard is the most important player on the floor. You can get a good one for maybe $700k.”
An SEC coach broke it down a bit differently,” Point guards are the most important players, but bigs might be the most expensive,” he added, “Some point guards will go for over $1 million, but most of the high-level bigs will go in that range.”
Which position can you find the most value in the Transfer Portal?
While point guards and big men are the two positions that coaches are reserving significant NIL resources for, there are other spots where, with good scouting, you can find that outperform their market value.
“The two-guard,” an ACC Coach said. “Usually there are a lot of them. You can get a quality high major starter at the shooting guard spot for around $800k to $1 million.”
Another ACC coach also pointed out there is value to be found in the guard position, “I think you can always find a good guard. A lot of times a good mid-major guard will translate to the high-major level. Rarely will you find a mid-major big that translates and has an all-conference-type impact at that position.”
A coach in the A10 said, “You can get twos and threes at a bargain, maybe even fours sometimes. There are so many of them that go into the portal, and if you do your homework, a lot of times you can get them at a bargain.”
The task ahead
- Coach Wade (Woo Hoo!) will need an entire starting lineup and most, if not all, of a roster from the portal. According to those coaches interviewed, that means somewhere between $4-7 million to be competitive. I think we can assume the support is there since it was likely part of the university’s commitment during the hiring process. Couple that with this quote from another current ACC coach, “He’s a proven winner who will quickly be able to put together a roster that competes in the top half of the league.”
- The Wolfpack Recruiting Pitch – Great coach, check! Financial support, check! Recent success, check! History, facilities, TV exposure, quality league – check! Hey kid, want to go to Hawaii next fall? (“Yes I do!”) We’ve got a package to sell! June is here!
Open That Portal!! Let The Fun Begin!!
Referenced Articles:
https://www.on3.com/news/college-coaches-share-reactions-to-will-wades-impact-at-nc-state/