Yes, it’s a rivalry
When: Saturday January 11 – 4:00 PM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: ACCN
Opponent: University of North Carolina Tar Heels
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): UNC 80-75 / UNC 79-75
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 9-6, 2-2
- Rankings: KP #90, BT #100, WAB -2.0 ranked 105th *
- NET Ranking: NET 107, 11th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (0-3), Q2 (1-3), Q3 (1-0), Q4 (7-0)
Wolfpack Season So Far:
NC State pulled together and won a “must win” game against Notre Dame Wednesday night ending a two-game road losing streak. It was one of our more balanced games of the season. We had four starters in double figures, all five starters hit a 3PT shot. We played nine, all nine scored and all got at least two rebounds. We had 15 fast break points. That is exactly the formula for success for this team.
At the same time, FSU put together consecutive ACC wins and moved up to 71 in the NET, making that win our first quality (Q2) win of the season.
UNC is currently ranked 39 in the NET, so is also a Q2 opponent.
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Mike James had arthroscopic knee surgery on 10/30. In the WF postgame presser (1/4) Coach Keatts said they recently intended to start including him in drills, but he got sick.
Opponent Overview:
UNC was voted to finish 2nd in the ACC preseason polls, and 9th in the country, after making it to the Sweet 16 last season.
In an obvious oversite, the Tar Heels are not currently ranked in the AP
UNC returnees include preseason POY RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, and Bacot understudy Jalen Washington.
The Tar Heels roster features six recruited newcomers, including freshmen starters 5-star Ian Jackson & 5-star Drake Powell, plus big man depth James Brown. They also added transfers Cade Tyson (Belmont), Ven-Allen Lubin (Vanderbilt), and Tyzhaun Claude (Georgia Tech). Coach Davis also brought in his son Elijah from D-III Lynchburg.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 10-6, 3-1
- Rankings: KP #30, BT #39, WAB 1.0 ranked 36th *
- NET Ranking: NET 39, 3rd in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (1-6), Q2 (3-0), Q3 (3-0), Q4 (3-0)
Their ACC Rankings of Note: (Source: theacc.com)
- UNC is ranked first in the ACC in offense
- Ranked last in defense
- Ranked 4th in FG percentage
- Ranked 4th in blocked shots
Their Season So Far:
The Heel have played a ferocious schedule. They have already played 7 Q1 opponents (for comparison, we currently play 6 all season), going 1-6. In the OOC they played at Kansas (-3), hosted Alabama (-15), and played Dayton (+2), Auburn (-13), Michigan St (-3), and Florida (-6) at neutral sites.
In the ACC, they lost their other Q1 game at Louisville (-13), and beat Georgia Tech (+3), SMU (+15) and won Saturday at Notre Dame (+1).
Looking at Their Most Recent Loss:
1/1 @ Louisville 83-70
- The thing that jumps off the stat sheet is fouls, there were 50 fouls called, including one technical on each team. UNC’s Powell, Cadeau, and Tyson fouled out and Davis had 4. Louisville ended the game with 4 players having 4 fouls.
- Louisville shot 39 FT to UNC’s 23 and were +7
- Louisville shot 26 3PT to UNC’s 16 and were +6
- Louisville out rebounded UNC 43-37
- Louisville forced 11 TO and were +6 on points off turnovers
Player Notes
- UNC starts 3 5-star players (Cadeau, Jackson, Powell) and 2 4-star (Davis, Washington)
- RJ Davis was voted preseason ACC POY and first team All ACC
- RJ Davis is 5th in the ACC in scoring
- Ian Jackson is 3rd in FG percentage
- Elliot Cadeau is 3rd in assists
Keys To The Game
- Play tough, keep composure – UNC plays very physical. They average 19.2 fouls a game and have 20+ in 7 games.
- Play defense – UNC is the worst defensive team in the ACC, they beat you on offense. We should be able to score. Like Notre Dame, we need to control their guards, including 6th man Seth Trimble, on offense. Davis and Jackson have each scored 20+ in five games this season. Trimble scored 27 against Dayton.
- 3PT shooting – UNC does not rely heavily on the long ball, KP has them ranked 282nd in percent of scoring from outside. In the last five games, NC State has averaged 35.5% on 19.6 attempts from the arc. If we can replicate that, advantage Wolfpack.
- Rebound – This is not the stereotypically dominant UNC rebounding team we are accustomed to playing. But they are still better than we are. We are going to have to keep it close.
* Welcome to the WAB
The WAB (wins against bubble) shows how many more, or fewer, wins a team has against its schedule versus what a hypothetical bubble team would expect to have against the same schedule.