Meet the Pirates (again)… Now a Top 10 team!
Who’s the Pack playing?
Opponent: East Carolina
Mascot: Sea Highwaymen | School Location: Greenville, NC | Conference: American
2024 Record: 31-8 (11-4, T-1st) | 2024 RPI Rank: 8
2023 Record: 47-19 (18-6, 1st) | 2023 RPI Rank: 26
2022 Record: 46-21 (20-4, 1st*) | 2022 RPI Rank: 18
*2022 American Athletic Conference Tournament Champions
When? Where? How do I watch?
Location: Clark-LeClair Stadium (Greenville, NC)
Game Time(s): Tue, Apr 23 @ 6:00pm
TV: ESPN+
Live Stats: Stat Broadcast
Tell me about this team
It’s only been three weeks since these two teams squared off (you can read that preview here), so in theory there’s only so much that can change. In theory.
NC State has been through it in that time. The Wolfpack entered their first matchup with the Pirates ranked #19 in the polls and had won six of their previous seven, coming in fresh off a sweep of Notre Dame. That first game did not go well, with East Carolina pounding out a 12-4 win at Doak Field. That loss was the first of a five game skid for the Pack. NC State has only gone 4-3 since ending that losing streak, but all four of those wins have come against top-15 opponents, with two wins each against current #5 Clemson and #15 North Carolina.
Essentially, NC State went from looking like a Regional host to looking like a team that wouldn’t make a Regional back to looking like a Regional host. All in three weeks. So, yeah, a lot can change in that short span of time.
For East Carolina, though, not much has changed. The Pirates are 10-2 since their win in Raleigh, with both of those losses again coming by a single run each. For those keeping track at home, six of ECU’s eight losses on the year have come by one run; the other two losses are each by two runs. This is a team that plays close games.
The Pirates are currently projected as a Top 8 National Seed for the NCAA Tournament and are tied atop the AAC standings. The remainder of their conference schedule isn’t going to help much, but their remaining non-conference games are against #21 NC State (ranked 29th in RPI), #6 Duke (21st), and Campbell (80th). Those are the three highest ranked RPI teams on their schedule (the others are Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, and Rice). This is an important game for ECU, although if the Pirates fail to win either the AAC Regular Season or Tournament title, it’ll put a big dent in their National Seed hopes.
(Probable) Pitching Matchup
Tuesday: TBD — TBD
Key Players:
Offense
1B Carter Cunningham (SR) – .396/.479/.662, 10.1 BB%, 9.0 K%, 4-6 SB. Just continuing to mash the baseball. Has seen his walk rate drop by almost 2.0% over the last three weeks, but the strikeout rate has stayed consistent. Has hits in 13 of his last 14 games.
RF Jacob Jenkins-Cowart (JR) – .345/.397/.509, 7.5 BB%, 16.1 K%, 4-6 SB. Also continuing to just mash away. His slash line has slightly dipped across the board over the last three weeks, but during that time his BB% has improved 1.0% and his K% has dropped 1.8%. Has multi-hit efforts in four of his last eight games.
CF Ryley Johnson (JR) – .353/.491/.526, 17.8 BB%, 12.2 K%, 17-20 SB. Currently riding a 12-game hitting streak, with the last 0-for effort being the first game against State. Has seen improvements during that span in his BA of 39 points, his OBP of 41 points, and his OBP of 84 points while his BB% has ticked up by 2.8%.
C Justin Wilcoxen (SR) – .295/.342/.483, 4.8 BB%, 18.7 K%, 2-2 SB. Has been on-fire over the last three weeks with his BA up 30 points, his OBP up 44 points, and his SLG up 75 points. The Raleigh native (Millbrook HS) has six multi-hit efforts over his last 13 games. Has thrown out 6-of-19 attempted base stealers (31.6%) this year.
Pitching
LHP Aaron Groller (SR) – 2-0, 2.92 ERA, 12.1 IP, 1.9 BB%, 21.2 K%. The Seton Hall transfer got the start against the Wolfpack in Raleigh and pitched well (3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 3 K), so it’ll be tempting to throw the lefty against the Wolfpack again, although he’s only pitched in one game since (2.0 shutout innings on Saturday vs Wichita State).
RHP Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman (JR) – 3-1, 5 SV, 1.00 ERA, 45.0 IP, 8.5 BB%, 40.7 K%. The Pirates’ top reliever is 3rd on the team in innings pitched and continues to be a multi-inning arm, doing so in 12 of his last 13 outings and 16 of 20 on the year. Only three times this year has he reached 50 pitches in an outing, though.
RHP Danny Beal (SR) – 3-2, 3 SV, 2.77 ERA, 39.0 IP, 9.6 BB%, 14.4 K%. The contact-oriented righty is 4th on the team in innings pitched but 1st in appearances. We should expect to see the 6’2 Reagan HS alum at some point.
LHP Ethan Norby (FR) – 2-0, 1 SV, 3.70 ERA, 24.1 IP, 11.2 BB%, 32.7 K%. The 5’11 freshman from East Forsyth HS has pitched in a variety of roles and has flashed excellent in most of those. Threw 51 pitches on Saturday, so not sure if he’ll show up in this one, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him.
RHP Trey Yesavage (JR) – 8-1, 1.92 ERA, 61.0 IP, 8.1 BB%, 42.8 K%. He’s not going to pitch in this one, but I just wanted to call out what a ridiculously good year the future 1st round pick is having. Has double-digit strikeouts in six of ten starts this year.
Quick! Fun Facts!
ECU is 5-6 in games decided by one run this year. NC State is 9-4 in one-run games.
NC State is 10-11 in Quad 1 & 2 games. ECU is 7-5.
In terms of common opponents, the Wolfpack and Pirates both went 2-1 against UNC this year (good job all around, both of you!), ECU is 2-0 against UNCW while NC State is 0-1 against the Seahawks, and both teams lost close games to Campbell.
NC State is 2-4 in midweek games this year. ECU is 7-2.
ECU is 20-2 at home this season while NC State is 4-9 in road games on the year.
The Key To A Win For State
I’ve harped on the pitching of late – and rightfully so – but the inconsistencies and general non-explosiveness of the offense has been an issue. Sure, there were the 11- and 9-run outbursts in the opening games of the series against Clemson and UNC, respectively, but NC State has averaged just 4.0 runs/game in their other 10 games over the last three weeks. That’s not enough to get it done.
If NC State is going to come out victorious in Greenville, the bats are going to need to get going early and often.
Prediction
Both of these teams play a lot of close games. That’ll happen here again.
Outcome: ¯_(ツ)_/¯