It’d be nice if this game went well.
Dave Doeren goes up against his former program for the first time this week, as NC State meets Northern Illinois for the second time ever, and the first time in this century.
From 2010 through 2014, which includes Doeren’s two seasons, the Huskies won 56 games, and earned an Orange Bowl bid in 2012. They’ve won 55 games in the 9+ seasons since then. NIU has been solid in that time, earning five bowl trips and winning a MAC title, but it has been understandably difficult to recapture the magic of those glory years.
They’ve been all over the place under current head man Thomas Hammock—
—sorry, just had to get that out of the way. Anyway, they’ve been all over the place, sandwiching a 9-5 MAC title campaign in 2021 between an 0-6 COVID season and a 3-9 tumble through 2022. NIU bounced back last year to 7-6, and after the stunner at Notre Dame this season, the team is in good shape to earn another bowl bid, though it might be a close thing.
And it may happen in spite of the offense, which was not good last season and has not shown a whole lot of promise under first-year starting quarterback Ethan Hampton. In two games against FBS foes, he has completed 53.2% of his passes on 6.6 yards per attempt, with one touchdown pass. That one touchdown pass was pretty good, though. And maybe just a touch fortunate.
But NIU’s identity is forged around it rushing attack, which isn’t surprising given that Hammock is a former running back. He’s got a good one in Antario Brown, who finished third nationally in rushing yards before contact last season on the way to piling up nearly 1,300 yards. Brown has a veteran line in front of him, and you can be certain the Huskies will put NC State’s shaky rush defense to the test.
They put in yeoman’s work at Notre Dame, collecting 190 yards (99 from Brown) on 45 carries (4.2 YPC), and they’ve run the ball 40+ times in each game this season.
When they do throw the ball, 6’5 tight end Grayson Barnes (team-high 10 receptions) features heavily, and the Huskies also have a steady contributor in receiver Trayvon Rudolph, who led the team with 51 grabs and 531 yards in 2023.
Northern Illinois’ defense is a legit top-50 unit, and held up well in South Bend. It is a veteran-laden group that returns the bulk of a secondary that was excellent in 2023. The Huskies picked off 10 passes last season while holding opposing quarterbacks to 6.3 yards per attempt. Few MAC teams were good enough to expose that secondary, and neither Boston College nor Nebraska were up to the task, either. These guys can play.
The rush defense was up and down, however, and with four of the top five tacklers from ‘23 moving on, this may be a spot of trouble. (Though they’ve been decent here so far.)
As good as NIU’s defense was at times last season, the offense often let it down—in four of NIU’s losses, the team scored 17 points or fewer. To that end, the beginning of ‘23 has been less-than-encouraging, as two games against FBS teams have produced 36 total points.
I think NC State will be okay on Saturday, as long as it makes NIU’s ground game work for its yardage, keeping the explosive plays under control. Giving up 190 yards on 45 carries is fine, I’d say, but if we see the big collapses that plagued the Clemson game, then we’re gonna have a problem. NIU will want to hide its quarterback as much as possible, and how well State thwarts that plan likely determines how much we’re sweating as the game progresses.