Our last game before Christmas break. ACC play begins next game.
When: Sunday December 22 – 4:00 PM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: ACCN
Opponent: Rider Broncs (MAAC)
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): Wolfpack 76-58 / Wolfpack 75-56
Wolfpack Snapshot: KP #84, BT #89, NET 107
Wolfpack Season So Far: 7-4
NC State has developed some undesirable tendencies which need to be corrected to have any chance in the ACC:
- The Pack started three of the last four games very slowly. Against Coppin State the Pack missed their first 10 shots and started down 7-0. Against Kansas, State missed the first 7 shots and started down 15-0. (lost by 15) Conversely, against FSU the Pack started 5-0 and never trailed in the first half, but against Texas the Pack missed their first 3 shots and started the game down 9-0. (lost by 4)
- The Wolfpack is struggling to score against the better teams. Excluding the outstanding 14 points in OT against FSU, we are averaging 62.8 ppg in regulation since the William & Mary game before Thanksgiving. That includes scoring only 66 against Coppin State – not one of the better teams. Compared to the rest of the ACC, that average would rank us 17th in scoring, just ahead of UVA (61.4 ppg).
- Michael O’Connell is struggling. He’s 18th in the country in assist / turnover but tied for 165th in assists per game. Only 2 assists in the last two games. He’s 3-17 (17.6%) from 3PT in the last 6 games.
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Mike James had knee surgery on 10/30, doctors (under!!) estimated 3–4 week recovery.
Opponent Overview:
The MAAC writers predicted Rider will finish 7th in the league this season. Two-time MAAC coach of the year Coach Kevin Baggett returns for his 13th season as head coach.
Coach Baggett returns a couple of starters, TJ Weeks and Tariq Ingraham, from last season’s team that finished 3rd in the league. Rider brought in transfers Jay Alvarez from Houston Christian and JUCO Zion Cruz to fill a couple of holes in the starting lineup.
Their Season So Far: 4-8 KP #313, BT #316, NET 321
Rider is one of those schools that earns a big chunk of its revenue during the OOC season by visiting other schools. NC State will be their 13th game, only 4 of which will have been at home. Rider has lost six in a row.
They started their season in LA, losing to UCLA (-35) then headed south to UC San Diego winning 68-67. Three days later they appeared in Maryland, beating Coppin State (+9) and Navy (+11). From there they jumped to Iowa City losing to Iowa (-25), then two in Pennsylvania beating Bucknell (+4) and losing to Villanova (-24). They then played 3 of 4 at home, losing to Delaware (-6), their MAAC opener 3 hours away at Fairfield (-3), Quinnipiac (-5) and Stony Brook (-17). Then a short trip to Philly to play Penn (-13) Friday night, and then they head south to Raleigh.
Player Notes
Tariq Ingraham started his career at Wake Forest before transferring to Rider for the ’22-’23 season. He went off for 21 points and 14 boards against Fairfield. He had three consecutive double-doubles before the Penn game.
T.J. Weeks Jr. is the Broncs’ leading scorer, averaging 13.1 points per game. He’s scored in double figures nine times in 11 games.
To join incoming freshman Flash Burton on the all-name team they transferred in big man Tank Byard from Alcorn State and guard Zocko Littleton, Jr. from JUCO Chipola College (before that, App State)
Wolfpack Christmas Wishlist for this Game
- Do not mentally leave for Christmas break until after the game.
- Score early and often – Win by 20+! Focus on scoring inside and don’t force outside shots.
- Play Middlebrooks and Huntley-Hatfield together as much as fouls allow. We’ll need that experience for ACC play. It would be great to see them build on that 26 point / 11 rebound performance against Kansas.
- Limit three-point shooting – Everyone has taken 3PT shots, but only Styles (38.1%, 42 3PTA), Huntley-Hatfield (40%, 5 3PTA), Pass (52.6%, 19 3PTA), and Dennis Parker, Jr. (36.4%, 11 3PTA) are shooting better than 30%. Frightening fact: Our starting guards, Hill (14 3PTA), Taylor (42 3PTA), and O’Connell (28 3PTA) are each shooting 28.6%. – the same percentage as Middlebrooks (7 3PTA) who has made 3 3PT shots in his 4 year career. It’s obvious who should be shooting them. Let’s see what Breon Pass can do with a few more 3PT attempts in this game.
- Share the ball – This team needs assists. In our best ‘big boy’ game, against Texas, we had 15 assists on 24 made field goals. Obviously, since we lost, we could have used a few more made field goals, but assists on 62.5% of our shots is excellent. This is not a team with a ‘take over the game’ scorer, so we need to get multiple players scoring by sharing the ball.