The Wolfpack hits the halfway point in the ACC season
When: Saturday February 1 – 1:30 PM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: The CW
Opponent: Clemson Tigers
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): Clemson 69-64 / Clemson 68-64
The Big Picture is Ugly
A loss would tie Coach Keatts’ worst losing streak – 6 games (1/26/22-2/12/22)
At 2-7, we are currently ranked 16th in the ACC, not eligible for the 2025 ACC tournament
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 9-11, 2-7
- Rankings: KP #96, BT #97, WAB -4.7 ranked 164th *
- NET Ranking: NET 110, 11th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (0-5), Q2 (0-4), Q3 (2-2), Q4 (7-0)
Wolfpack Season So Far:
NC State is on a five-game losing streak and has only beaten two quality (ish) opponents all season. In most games the Wolfpack keeps it close but has been unable to finish.
The most interesting recent development is the quality play of freshmen Paul McNeil and Trey Parker. Paul had the best game of his career last Saturday against SMU, Trey had his best game Monday against Duke. Both should be early substitutions and play meaningful minutes regularly for the remainder of the season.
Clemson is a Q1 opponent. (but if we beat them, probably won’t be anymore)
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Mike James had arthroscopic knee surgery on 10/30 and has yet to play this season.
Opponent Overview:
Clemson was voted 4th in the ACC preseason rankings and are currently ranked second at 9-1 in the league.
Through his first 7 years as the Head Coach at Clemson, Coach Brownell only made the NCAA tournament once as a play-in, and lost in the round of 64, and the fanbase was loudly calling for change. But they stuck with him. Over the second 7 years of his tenure, the Tigers earned five NCAA tournament wins and the decision makers look pretty smart. Last season the Tigers were 24-12 / 11-9 and after getting blasted by BC in the first round of the ACCT, made it to the Elite Eight.
Starters Chase Hunter, Chauncey Wiggins, and the ACC’s Most Improved Player last season Ian Schieffelin return, as well as Dillon Hunter (brother).
To replace PJ Hall Coach Brownell Brownell brought in three big men transfers: Starter Viktor Lakhin (Cincinnati), plus Christian Reeves (Duke), and Myles Foster (Illinois State). And the gem of the transfer class is starting guard Jaeden Zackery who started for three seasons at Boston College.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 17-4, 9-1
- Rankings: KP #27, BT #30, WAB +2.3 ranked 26th *
- NET Ranking: NET 29, 3rd in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (2-2), Q2 (4-2), Q3 (5-0), Q4 (6-0)
Their ACC Rankings of Note: (Source: theacc.com)
- 4th Defense
- 5th Team FG%
- 1st Team 3PT %
- 3rd 3PT FGs Made
- 2nd Turnover margin (behind NC State)
- 4th Assists
- 4th Steals
Their Season So Far:
Clemson split with their 4 quality OOC opponents, losing away games to Boise St ((-13) and South Carolina (-3), and beating Penn St (+8) on a neutral floor and Kentucky (+4) at home.
In the ACC they’ve only lost a road game to Louisville (-10) and won the rest; road games at Miami (+10), GT (+11), Pitt (+3 OT), and VT (+14), and home games Wake (+11), Stanford (+14), Cal (+12), FSU (+20), and Syracuse (+14).
They got the week off to prepare to play the Wolfpack.
Player Notes
Preseason All-ACC Second team – Ian Schieffelin and Chase Hunter
ACC Rankings:
- Ian Schieffelin 2nd in rebounding
- Chase Hunter 1st in 3PT FG%, 4th in 3PT made per game
- Viktor Lakhin 3rd in blocked shots (behind Big Ben)
- Jaeden Zackery 3rd in steals
Keys To The Game
- Avoid fouling B & B – Clemson has a big starting lineup. They average 6’6.8” and 224 lbs and are unusual in that they start two big men (6’10” & 6’11”) along with a 6’8” forward. Our standard lineup would have both Styles and Hill at a 4” and 35/45 lb disadvantage. We’re going to have to play Ben & BHH together at times and they need to stay in the game. Seems like a good opportunity for Diouf to come in and (minimally) donate some fouls.
- Limit 3PT shooting / Make 3PT shots – The Tigers are the best 3PT% shooting team in the ACC and are 3rd in made 3PT field goals. Hunter is #1 in the ACC in 3PT FG%. The Tigers are 3rd in ACC play in limiting opponent’s 3PT shots. We need to hit some to keep up.
- Looking at their one ACC loss – The main difference in the game was Louisville’s J’Vonne Hadley was unstoppable. He scored 32 (10-12 FG, 3-3 3PT, 9-11 FT), 10 rebounds, 4 assists. Not a success formula many can replicate.
For The Wolfpack to Win
- Our leading scorers (#1 Hill, #2 Taylor, #4 Middlebrooks) have to show up. Against Duke they scored 4, 8, and zero respectively. Together they average 34 ppg.
- Marcus Hill – The Wolfpack’s leading scorer only hit one shot (1-10) versus Duke, the biggest team in the country. Clemson presents a similar size problem. He’s unlikely to get to the rim, he’s going to need to hit some mid-range jump shots to contribute.
- Paul McNeil has led the team in assists the last two games. In the Duke game we had 10 assists in the first half and that’s when he played 6 of his 8 minutes and got his assists. Against SMU he had a great stat line, 8 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, and 1 steal. He’s 6’5”, we need his size. His shot will fall eventually. He needs minutes to get comfortable.
- Trey Parker took Breon Pass’ minutes, and almost split the game evenly with O’Connell. (TP 19 mins / MO 23 mins) In the post game presser, Coach Scheyer even mention how he impacted the game. He is the quickest man on the team and is one of our few three level scorers. However, if he’s going to play PG, he needs to dramatically improve his passing. (TO 13, assist 11) He needs to play 20 every game the rest of the way.
* Welcome to the WAB – The WAB (wins against bubble) shows how many more, or fewer, wins a team has against its schedule versus what a bubble team would expect to have against the same schedule.