“To be the best, you have to beat the best.” Let’s try it!
When: Saturday December 14 – 3:15 PM
Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence Kansas
TV: ESPN
Opponent: Kansas Jayhawks (Big 12 Conference)
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): Jayhawks 78-65 / Jayhawks 77-64
Wolfpack Snapshot: KP #78, BT #80, NET 109
Wolfpack Season So Far: 7-3 / 1-0
NC State is coming off two 10-point wins, but neither was one to brag about. ACC wins are certainly a positive thing, but FSU was predicted to finish 15th in the league and it was a home game. And then Coppin State (NET 363) was expected to be an easy win, but led the game for the first 12+ minutes and pushed us much harder than they should have. That 10 point win should have been 30.
After the first third of the season, let’s compare the Pack to the rest of the ACC. So far, the offense is struggling but the defense is playing pretty well.
- Offense – 12th in ACC, FG% 8th in ACC, 3PT% 15th in ACC, 3PT made 17th in ACC, FT% 16th in ACC, Team rebounds 15th in ACC
- Defense – 5th in ACC, Opp FG% 9th in ACC, Opp 3PT% 1st in ACC, Turnover margin 1st in ACC, Blocked shots 3rd in ACC
- Rebounding – So far, we have been outrebounded 36.2 to 34.4 per game. The better teams are dominating the boards. Purdue +10, BYU +13, Texas +7.
Players trending:
- Dontrez Styles – 3 consecutive games with his highest scores on the season
- Marcus Hill – Last 3 games were 3 of his 4 highest scores on the season
- Huntley-Hatfieldd – Scored in single digits 3 of last 4 games – the only times this season
- Michael O’Connell – He has 10 turnovers on the season, 6 in the last three games. TX amd CSU were his worst shooting games of the season
- Dennis Parker, Jr. – Finally appears to be back, playing his best since last February
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Mike James had knee surgery on 10/30, doctors (under!) estimated 3–4 week recovery.
Opponent Overview:
In the preseason, Kansas was voted to finish 1st in the B12 this season and were AP preseason #1.
They are coming off a ‘disappointing’ 23-11 / 10-8 season in which they lost in the 1st round of their conference tournament to Cincinnati, and by 21 to Gonzaga in the 2nd round of the NCAAT.
Coach Self became KU’s winningest coach with their win over Michigan State earlier in the season. He topped legend Phog Allen’s previous record of 590 wins.
The Jayhawks return starters grad center Hunter Dickinson (you will hear that name again), grad guard Dajuan Harris, Jr. and senior forward KJ Adams.
Coach Self has embraced and excelled in the portal, bringing in six transfers. AJ Storr was Wisconsin’s star last season, averaging 16.8 ppg. Zeke Mayo is a hometown kid transferring back from South Dakota State where he led that team in scoring, assists, and was 2nd in boards. 6’6” marksman Rylan Griffen was a starter on the Alabama Final Four team. They also added former Wolfpack player Shakeel Moore (Miss St, NC State), Noah Shelby (Rice) and David Coit (Northern Ill).
And, of course, the freshman class is not too shabby. Coach Self signed Hunter Dickinson’s understudy, 5-star center Flory Bidunga (247’s #13) and 4-star, top 50, guard Rakease Passmore.
Their Season So Far: (7-2) KP #11, BT #8, NET 18
KenPom has them with the 16th toughest non-conference schedule.
So far, they have quality wins against UNC (+3), Michigan State (+8), and Duke (+3). In addition to beating Howard (+30), UNCW (+18), Oakland (+21), and Furman (+35).
They are coming off consecutive road losses against Creighton (-13) in the Big East/Big 12 Battle, and Missouri (-9).
- After the Creighton game Coach Self explained, “I thought we did some good things, considering we weren’t very good, and they were really good.”
- In the postgame presser after Missouri Coach Self speculated, “I think it was probably a combination of them being good and us not being good. “
And that’s the kind of analysis that got Coach Self into the Hall of Fame.
Player Notes
- Hunter Dickinson was voted to the AP preseason All-American team; Big 12 preseason player of the year; unanimously voted 1st team All-Big 12
- This is Hunter Dickinson’s fifth season, 3 at Michigan. He has started 131 of 136 games.
- Hunter Dickinson scored 28 against Michigan St, and had 15 rebounds against UNCW
- Dajuan Harris, Jr was voted 2nd team All-Big 12
The Wolfpack Visits Lawrence Kansas
NC State has played Kansas 13 times. The first game was in December 1958 when Kansas was coming off a Final Four. The ’58-‘59 AP preseason poll had NC State #5 and Kansas #7. Coach Everett Case’s Wolfpack went to (3-year-old) Allen Fieldhouse and beat Coach Dick Harp’s Jayhawks 66-63. The good guys have not won since.
Based on the current NET ratings, we have six Q1 opportunities this season, one neutral court, 2 home court, 3 away. Purdue was the first, Kansas is the second. (plus Duke-Away, Clemson-Home, UNC-Away, Pitt-Home).
Question: When is the best time to beat Kansas?
- On their home court? Nope, they lost only one home game last season – in a disappointing season – and they do not intend to lose any more.
- When they’re returning home after consecutive road losses? Nope, that doesn’t sound right.
- When they’re missing their star? Nope, Hunter Dickinson is just fine, thanks for asking.
- Will they overlook the Pack due to their next opponent? Nope, Brown’s in town.