Best 2 out of 3?
When: Wednesday February 19, 7:00 PM
Where: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill
TV: ESPN
Opponent: University of North Carolina Tar Heels
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): UNC 79-68 / UNC 78-69
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 10-15, 3-11
- Rankings: KP #112, BT #104, WAB -6.8 ranked 189th
- NET Ranking: NET 124, 13th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (0-7), Q2 (0-6), Q3 (2-2), Q4 (8-0)
Wolfpack Season So Far:
NC State ended its historic (but not in a good way) 9-game losing streak on Saturday. (karma for last season’s 9-game streak?) We have six remaining regular season games, 4 are road games in which we are ‘ice cream free’ so far, and the two home games are against Wake and Pitt in which we are likely underdogs.
Realistically, two sad goals remain this season:
- STRETCH GOAL – Make the ACC tournament – The bottom 3 teams aren’t invited. Currently the Wolfpack is out, ranked 16th and 2 games behind the team(s) in front of them with six games left to play.
- WIN AT LEAST TWO MORE – Avoid tying or exceeding the most losses in Wolfpack history – 2021-2022: 11-21 / 4-16
*** 33 Days Till the Fun Resumes! Transfer Season 2025 Begins March 24. Players have the March 24–April 22 window to submit their names and be eligible to play in the fall. Time to start shopping!
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Mike James – In the Monday 2/17 press conference, Coach Keatts’ confirmed season long expectations that James is “unlikely to play this season”.
History of Recent Road Trips To Chapel Hill:
The last time NC State won in Chapel Hill was 1/27/18, Coach Keatts’ first season, winning 95-91 in OT. That may also be the last time the Pack had 3 players score 20 or more in a game. (did not look it up) Torin Dorn and Markell Johnson each had 20, and Al Freeman 29.
Opponent Overview:
With 11 losses (6 ACC), ranked 6th in the ACC, and on the NCAAT bubble, this doesn’t look like Ol’ Roy’s Tar Heels. But if you look a little closer, you see that 10 of those losses are to Q1 opponents, with the one exception being losing to Stanford in Chapel Hill. And their remaining schedule is favorable, 4 home / 2 away with 5 against the bottom half of the ACC. This is still a team not to be trifled with.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 15-11, 8-6
- Rankings: KP #48, BT #55, WAB +0.27 ranked 51st
- NET Ranking: NET 47, 5th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (1-10), Q2 (5-0), Q3 (5-1), Q4 (4-0)
Their ACC Rankings of Note – Conference Play: (Source: theacc.com)
- Team Defensive Rebounds – 3rd
- Blocked Shots – 3rd
- Opponent FG% – 4th
- Opponent 3PT FG% – 4th
- Offense – 5th
Player Notes
- Elliot Cadeau – 4th in ACC in assists per game
- Jalen Washington – 4th in ACC in blocked shots
- RJ Davis – 5th in ACC in FT%, and 10th in 3PT made per game
To lose a game only by two, while shooting 15.8% from 3PT (3-19) is nuts. This was one of Ben Middlebrooks’ best games, he had a career high 14 rebounds. Marcus Hill led the scoring with 20 points. Styles didn’t have a great day against his old team, only 7 points. For the Heels, freshman Ian Jackson lit us up for 21.
For The Wolfpack to Win
The Hells (whoops, spell check error) have only lost twice at home, to #2 Alabama and to Stanford. Stanford shot slightly better and out rebounded them by 1. The decisive factor might have been their 7 blocked shots. Raynaud’s 25 / 13 might have helped a bit, too.
- Get the Offense off life support – NC State is ranked 17th in offense in the ACC, barely above UVA. KenPom ranks the Pack 297th in effective FG%. They have scored 80+ once, and in the 70s three times in ACC play. It will take an offensive performance hitherto unseen in ACC play this season.
- Win the post – Huntley-Hatfield did not play in the first game against UNC. Middlebrooks and Diouf combined for 14 rebounds and 9 points. It will probably take 15+ / 15+ from the bigs to get it done.
- Guard the guards – The Wolfpack did a fine job on old man Davis in the first game, he was 5-13 with only 11 points. And they generally guarded the 3PT line well. EXCEPT, Jackson was 8-15 / 5-8. In UNC’s last 5 losses, Jackson was held to 6.6 points a game. Might want to keep an eye on him. Either guard can light it up on any given night.
- 3PT shooting – Make at least as many as UNC. Last game we played 9 guys, 8 of them attempted 3PT shots. Only Taylor (2) and O’Connell (1) made any. That includes Big Ben missing two! NC State has five players who shoot better than 30%, Taylor (33%), Styles (33.3%), McNeil (33.3%), T Parker (37.5%), and Pass (44.2%). Those five should be doing the 3PT shooting for the remainder of the season.