Weird coincidence, the Wolfpack played the ‘Cardinal’ followed immediately by the ‘CardinalS’
When: Wednesday February 12- 7:00 PM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: ESPN2
Opponent: University of Louisville Cardinals
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): Louisville 74-67 / Louisville 73-67
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 9-14, 2-10
- Rankings: KP #102, BT #103, WAB -6.3 ranked 186th
- NET Ranking: NET 120, 12th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (0-6), Q2 (0-6), Q3 (2-2), Q4 (7-0)
Wolfpack Season So Far:
8 consecutive losses – longest losing streak of Coach Keatts’ career. Going back through Wolfpack history, the longest losing streaks I could find since the Valvano seasons were the 9-game streaks during the 1991-1992 (Les Robinson) and 2007-2008 (Sidney Lowe) seasons.
Realistically, two sad goals remain this season:
- Make the ACC tournament – The bottom 3 teams aren’t invited. Currently we are out, ranked 17th. We have remaining games against the ACC’s 3 other worst teams, Syracuse, Miami, and Boston College. KenPom has us favored against BC & Miami.
- Avoid tying or exceeding the most losses in Wolfpack history – 2021-2022: 11-21 / 4-16
*** 40 Days Till The Fun Starts! Transfer Season 2025 Begins March 24. Players have the March 24–April 22 window to submit their names and be eligible to play in the fall. Time to start shopping!
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Mike James face their previous team. However, with a new coaching staff and only one player returning from last season, other than the jerseys, they won’t look too familiar.
- Mike James had arthroscopic knee surgery on 10/30 and has yet to play this season. Coach Keatts announced that he has not yet been ruled out for the season in his Monday (2/3) press conference. He expects to make a final decision soon.
- Brandon Huntley-Hatfield did not make last week’s trip to California and spent the week getting therapy twice a day for his shoulder, injured in the Notre Dame game. In the Monday presser Coach Keatts said, “… if he feels better, he’ll be ready to go on Wednesday.” Game time decision.
Opponent Overview:
It’s a new day in Louisville. Coach Pat Kelsey takes the reigns after successful stops at Winthrop and Charleston. While at Winthrop he signed Tennessee transfer and Wolfpack legend, DJ Burns.
Coaching changes are rough on rosters, and this one was brutal. 12 players transferred out. Coach Kelsey had to recruit an entire team. Not an easy task at all, but he did well.
He started by harvesting three players from his Charleston squad, current Louisville starters sharp shooting guard Reyne Smith (hit 10 3PT shots against SMU), and big man James Scott (3 double doubles in ACC games), plus Kobe Rogers. He then hit the portal to flesh out his new starting lineup with 6’6” guards Chucky Hepburn (Wisconsin) and J’Vonne Hadley (Colorado) both of whom have 32 point games on the season, and Terrence Edwards, Jr (JMU) who had 6 20+ point games this season, and plus Koren Johnson (Washington), Kasean Pryor (USF), Noah Waterman (BYU), Aboubacar Traore (LBSU), Frank Anselem-Ibe (UGA), and Aly Khalifa (BYU).
And, he added 4-star high school recruit Khani Rooths, 247 ranked #38 in his class.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 18-6, 11-2
- Rankings: KP #29, BT #24, WAB +3.0 ranked 28th
- NET Ranking: NET 29, 3rd in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (4-5), Q2 (5-1), Q3 (4-0), Q4 (5-0)
Their ACC Rankings of Note – Conference Play: (Source: theacc.com)
- 1st 3PT FG made
- 1st Team Rebounds
- 2nd in offense
- 3rd in defense
- 3rd Assist / Turnover Ratio
- 4th Turnover Margin
- 4th Assists
- 4th in opponent 3PT%
- 5th Opponent Rebounds
Their Season So Far:
Coach Kelsey gets credit for scheduling strong. His four OOC P4 ‘resume builders’ were AP #5 Tennessee (-22), NET #44 Oklahoma (-5), AP #19 Ole Miss (-23), and AP #15 Kentucky (-8).
Add in a December loss to AP #3 Duke (-11) and 5 of their 6 losses are Q1, with one mild stumble recently at Georgia Tech. (hey, it happens, ask Clemson)
Player Notes
- Smith – 1st in 3PT made per game
- Hepburn – 1st Assists per game
- Hadley – 4th FG%
- Smith – 4th 3PT FG%
Key To The Game
It’s all about the 3PT shooting with the Cardinals
- Limit Louisville’s three-point shooting – Louisville makes more 3PT shots per game than anyone in the ACC, they rank #50 in the country. In the last five games, 49.7% of their shots were from 3PT, they shot 37.6%, and averaged making 11.8 per game. They’ve had double-digit makes in 14 games, they made 19 at SMU and beat them by 25.
- Make three-point shots – Louisville is ranked 4th in the ACC in opponent 3PT% so it’s going to be tough. The Wolfpack has only two games with double-digit makes (Duke & ND – 10 each). It’ll probably take making 10+ to keep this close.
What About Trey Parker and Ismaël Diouf?
- Right now, Diouf is the best center. While he may be the weaker defender, his offense and rebounding are a good trade off, especially earlier in the game. It’s a small sample size, but in their last two games they played, Ish had 16 pts / 8 reb, Ben had 5 pts / 2 reb, BHH had 13 pts / 8 reb. I think the pressure of being “our only option” at center lately has been rough on Big Ben. Getting BHH back for this game (TBD) should not keep Diouf off the court.
- Right now, Trey Parker is the best point guard. Over the last four games he has averaged 19.5 mins, 12.25 pts, 1.75 reb, 1.75 assists, and 1.5 TO. For comparison, O’Connell’s last four were 26.25 mins, 4.5 pts, 2.75 reb, 1.5 ast, and 1 TO. Granted, Trey had one outlier game and we don’t know if he can replicate that, but Louisville ranks 15th in steals but 2nd in scoring. Turnovers are less a concern than scoring. A good time to give him a shot.
- Should they start? Why not? It could pay off in the few games left. The Pack winning this game would probably be the ACC’s biggest upset of the week and definitely the Wolfpack’s only quality win of the season. Louisville, along with Pitt and Wake, is one of our toughest remaining games. Parker has already started one game earlier this season, give him another one and let’s see what he can do after nearly a season of practice. Big Ben seems to have run out of ‘benergy’, let Diouf start and bring him off the bench.