A lot of upward mobility projected for the conference
Bill Connelly released his final SP+ preseason rankings for the 2024 season over at ESPN, and NC State checks in at #29, up 10 spots from the final 2023 rankings.
Connelly notes in the article the difference between the human polls (22nd in Coaches, 24th in AP) and his ratings for NC State, but doesn’t get into the disparity there… so I’ll do it.
As noted in the ESPN article, the SP+ preseason projections:
are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history.
SP+ accounts for transfer portal additions, but in an almost even manner as it does incoming recruiting class rankings. Obviously, transfers are more likely to have an immediate and larger impact than incoming freshman. To that end, the ratings undervalue a team like the Wolfpack with the largest improvement expected from an offense rebuilt via instant impact transfers.
The updated rankings do reflect that with a projected improvement of 20 spots by the State offense compared to their 2023 final ranking, with the ratings essentially expecting a 5.0 points/game improvement. That’s a big jump, but projecting the Pack to field an offense that isn’t in the top third of the nation seems like a low-ball estimate.
The defense is also expected to improve by SP+, although to a lesser extent (8 spot improvement, 1.3 rating improvement) than their counterparts on the other side of the ball. This is a little surprising since State only returns 55% of their defensive productivity from last year and – to undersell this point – loses the ACC’s best defender from last year.
As a whole, the ACC is expected to improve. The average rating for the conference is up 3.0 points from a year ago and ranks as the 4th best conference in these rankings (behind the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, respectively) despite ranking 3rd in both average offense and average defense ratings.
Basically, SP+ expects Duke to take a major backslide with Mike Elko off to Texas A&M, while buying bounce-back campaigns from Pat Narduzzi (Pitt) and Dave Clawson (Wake). Things are expected to look up for Tony Elliott at Virginia, which he desperately needs sitting at 6-16 going into Year 3 in Charlottesville. ACC newcomer SMU looks potentially strong, while fellow newly-minted conference members Cal and Stanford are expected to take steps forward.