A snapshot of our NCAAT chances at this point
State of the Wolfpack
NC State has reached the halfway point of the season, 16 games complete. 15 ACC games remain on the regular season calendar. They’ve lost 7 of the last 11 games. We are in the midst of “Death Race 2025”, ACC coaches are coaching for survival in a weak league that is likely to place no more than 4 teams in the NCAAT.
The conversations in the NC State coaches’ meetings are now, “How can we beat the next opponent with O’Connell, Taylor, Hill, Styles and Middlebrooks?” No longer are they spending much time talking about freshman/Canadian development. The bench has been shortened. Barring the unexpected, (Ex. Diouf’s ND cameo when Huntley-Hatfield went down and Big Ben already had two fouls), sadly we are unlikely to see Heard, McNeil, Parker, or Diouf play any meaningful minutes the rest of the season. And even if healthy, James is probably too far behind to make any significant contribution this season. (16 games in, our starters are still working things out)
So, despite preseason optimism about the Wolfpack being different this season (minimally deeper), they aren’t. Most of the time, they find ourselves playing Coach Keatts’ standard four-out offense, the standard full court defense, and rotating the same three roles (small guard, big guard/wing, big man) off the bench.
Comparing to last season:
Last season the Wolfpack was 12-4 / 4-1 at the midway point (NET 74) with one quality win over Q2 UVA. This season, 9-7 / 2-3 (NET 108 – 11th in ACC) with one quality win over Q2 FSU. The view from here does not look encouraging.
Comparing ACC wins and losses:
Five games is too small a sample size, so conclusions are shaky. However:
- Defense has been consistent: Opponents averaged 69.5 ppg in wins, and 70 in losses
- Offense is the problem: NC State averaged 75 ppg in the wins (68.5 without FSU OT), and 62.2 ppg in losses
- Shooting percentages tell the tale: 47.8% / 35.9% in wins, 40.4% / 27.1% in losses. The Pack averaged making 9 3PT shots in the wins, 5 in losses.
The other key stats are similar:
- Rebounds: wins 33.3 per, losses 33.1 per
- Fouls: wins 14, losses 13
- Assists: wins 12, losses 10
- Turnovers: wins 9, losses 11
- Blocks: wins 5, losses 2 (Middlebrooks out for UVA)
- Steals: wins 6, losses 5
Looking ahead:
NC State has 3 Q1 opportunities in front of them, at Duke, at Carolina, and Pitt at home. They have 5 Q2 opportunities remaining, SMU, Clemson, and Louisville at home, Cal and Stanford back-to-back on that long road trip. Winning at home is critical. On the flip side – the games that could drag them down – they have 6 Q3 games and 1 Q4 remaining.
Keys To Making the Tournament (AKA, what needs to be fixed)
If the Wolfpack wins all of the remaining Q2/Q3/Q4 games, that will put them at 21-10 going into the ACCT with 6 Q2 wins on the resume. As unlikely as that seems, they’d probably still need to do some damage in the tournament to make the NCAAT. They’ve dug themselves a hole.
How does the Pack fix the offense?
- Catch & shoot 3PT shots. NC State is not a good 3PT shooting team, maximize opportunities. Avoid shooting off the dribble. Breon Pass needs to take a couple more shots per game.
- Middlebrooks and Huntley-Hatfield need more shots. Currently O’Connell has more FG attempts than either. Feed the post!
- Assists – Hill is one of the few that can create his own shots, the Wolfpack needs to create offense by sharing the ball. They only had 7 assists against UNC. It was their poorest shooting ACC game.
- Offensive rebounds – The Pack is improving, just need to convert more into points