Thinkin’ about some football.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly went in-depth on the ACC last week, and while Clemson and FSU headline again as the league’s top contenders, Bill’s projections really help underscore the opportunity that lies ahead for NC State and others in the tier below.
Neither FSU (12) nor Clemson (14), for example, rank in the preseason SP+ top 10. And they have league win projections of 6.2 and 6.3, respectively. In the second tier, there are five programs—State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Miami, SMU—projected to win between 5.1-5.6 league games. Hey, this might be fun.
NC State (5.4 projected ACC wins, 8.5 overall) is aiming to build off a very strong back half of 2023:
They won five straight to end the regular season, overachieving against SP+ projections by 16.1 points per game and walloping Miami, Wake Forest and North Carolina by at least 14 points each. A disappointing bowl performance against Kansas State deprived them of both a long-awaited 10-win season and an opportunity to cannibalize an anthropomorphic Pop-Tart (college football, everybody!). But that was one hell of a stretch run.
The schedule is a huge asset here, as everyone is aware—the Wolfpack plays just one of the league’s projected top seven (Clemson), and two of the three worst (Wake, Stanford). While the end of the schedule (trips to GT and UNC) could be tricky, State’s large batch of newcomers will have gelled by then.
The concerning bit is that it took time for State’s defense to get sorted last season, and this year its most important games are right up front (Tennessee, Clemson). And with the offense plugging in so many (talented) new faces, this is maybe not the best year for a rigorous September. But only one of those games counts in the ACC standings.
I’m optimistic that the offense will be more capable of masking defensive shortcomings this season—it’s tough not to be—but it’s difficult to ballpark exactly where the ceiling lies here. No doubt it’ll help that the offense won’t be heading into the season with an uncertain identity; we already know that Kevin Concepcion is that side’s best player, and how best to leverage his talents. It also won’t take much progress elsewhere at receiver for those guys to prove more useful support than last year’s group, and they’ll be led by a more accomplished passer to boot.
There are a number of questions at receiver still, plus the matter of when and how the rebuilt offense hits its stride.
Anyway, is it football season yet?