Meet the Gators… an incredibly talented but undeserving team
Who’s the Pack playing?
Opponent: Florida
Mascot: Ornery creature in need of a toothbrush | School Location: Gainesville, FL | Conference: SEC
2024 Record: 34-29 (13-17, T-4th East) | 2024 RPI Rank: 12
2023 Record: 54-17 (20-10, 1st East) | 2023 RPI Rank: 3
2022 Record: 42-24 (15-15, T-2nd East) | 2022 RPI Rank: 16
When? Where? How do I watch?
Location: Charles Schwab Field (Omaha, NE)
Game Time: Mon, Jun 17 @ 2:00pm
TV: ESPN
Live Stats: NCAA
Tell me about this team
Let’s get this out of the way: Florida should not be playing baseball right now.
Yes, the Gators are a very very very talented team with a generational talent leading them, but they did not deserve to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament this year. Yes, they played the top Strength of Schedule in the country, but Florida finished the regular season at 28-27 with a 13-17 conference record and won just one of their final seven series of the year. If not for a lot of mutual backscratching going on amongst the NCAA Selection Committee this year (of which Florida’s AD was a member), the Gators don’t get into the field and aren’t still playing.
Of course, the Gators making it to Omaha will only give the Selection Committee a form of confirmation that they made the right choice in putting Florida in a Regional, but let’s be clear, it was still the wrong choice. There were much more deserving teams that did not get to participate in a Regional all because the NCAA went heavily with SEC bias to include the Gators after their own actions in the regular season deemed them not worthy. Shame on the NCAA.
Okay, now then, about this Florida team…
Well, I don’t really need to go into too much about what they did (or didn’t do… like win games in the regular season) this year because I’m pretty sure you can grab that from the context of what’s already been written. The offense wasn’t what was expected, but they have shown up in NCAA Tournament play. The Gators cranked out 17 runs in a Regional win over Nebraska and tagged Clemson for 21 runs across their two Super Regional games. Texas A&M did keep the Gators in check, though, in their CWS opener, a 3-2 loss.
It’s not an offense that’s going to play small ball very often (19 sac bunts on the year) and they won’t push the issue on the bases (40-of-51 SB), although they will pick their spot to try and snag a base each game. With a lineup featuring seven players with double-digit home runs, playing for the big inning is a philosophy that should work more often than not.
On the mound, Liam Peterson and Jac Caglianone form a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation, but the lack of a consistent third starting option hurt the Gators all year. The bullpen has some really good pieces, but also took a step back this year with returning arms not taking the expected step forward from last year’s CWS runner-up squad. Still, the talent is there and can shut down opponents when needed.
(Probable) Pitching Matchup
Monday: RHP Logan Whitaker (SR) — LHP Jac Caglianone (JR)
Key Players:
Offense
1B Jac Caglianone (JR) – .414/.536/.862, 17.5 BB%, 8.3 K%, 2-2 SB. A consensus Top 5 prospect in this year’s draft with most having him in the Top 3, he’s a two-way stud who can top 100 mph on the mound and routinely tops 110+ exit velos with the bat. The lefty was a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award and will finish his career as a 2-time First Team All-American. He’s crushed 33 HR in each of the last two years.
SS Colby Shelton (SO) – .253/.374/.555, 11.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 5-7 SB. The draft-eligible sophomore is a transfer from Alabama where he was a Freshman All-American. Has obviously had a rougher go of it this year, but does have three games in the NCAA Tournament with 3+ RBI.
C Luke Heyman (SO) – .247/.347/.486, 7.9 BB%, 22.7 K%, 1-1 SB. A draft-eligible sophomore was a big time recruit out of high school two years ago and is moving up draft boards with a solid finish to this year. The bat has a lot of pop in it. Has thrown out 10-of-29 attempted base stealers this year.
3B Dale Thomas (SR) – .236/.356/.364, 14.4 BB%, 17.8 K%, 4-5 SB. Former Coastal Carolina transfer who spent his first three college seasons with the Chanticleers before spending the last two seasons with the Gators. His transfer didn’t work out like he had hoped, but he’s come on strong down the stretch and into the postseason, including going 5-for-12 over his last three games.
Pitching
LHP Jac Caglianone (JR) – 5-2, 4.71 ERA, 72.2 IP, 14.5 BB%, 24.8 K%. The 6’5, 250 pound southpaw has electric stuff on the mound with the fastball being the best offering, capable of hitting triple digits. He didn’t pitch his first collegiate season while still coming back from Tommy John Surgery but has been great since. His secondary pitch is a low-90’s cutter and he also has changeup and slider that he’ll use. Finding the zone is his issue at times.
RHP Brandon Neely (JR) – 3-4, 4 SV, 5.30 ERA, 73.0 IP, 8.4 BB%, 30.0 K%. Top relief arm for the Gators who has served in a multitude of roles this year. Posted 13 SV and a 3.58 ERA a year ago. A Top 200 draft prospect this year with a mid-90’s heater that has some ride on it. His out pitch is the slider, while he’ll also toss in a pretty good changeup. Threw just 23 pitches on Saturday, so he’ll be able to go long if necessary for them on Monday.
RHP Fisher Jameson (JR) – 5-0, 2 SV, 4.14 ERA, 63.0 IP, 6.9 BB%, 21.3 K%. The 6’5 righty went from a lightly used reliever over his first two years to a key member of the staff this year. He did toss 52 pitches on Saturday against Texas A&M over 3.0 innings of scoreless relief, but it’s like an all-hands-on-deck effort here so we may see him briefly.
LHP Cade Fisher (SO) – 3-3, 1 SV, 7.16 ERA, 55.1 IP, 10.3 BB%, 26.9 K%. Was an Freshman All-American in 2023, but has found the going much rougher this year, mostly due to control issues (12 HBP) and getting squared up more often. Has allowed just two runs over his last six outings. Threw just 3 pitches on Saturday, so he’ll be fully available and should be expected to see the mound against State’s lefty-heavy lineup.
Quick! Fun Facts!
Florida is 5-1 against NC State in NCAA Tournament games, with the last matchup coming via the 2012 Gainesville Super Regional.
The Gators have struck out 44 times in their last three games, including 16 in their Saturday loss to Texas A&M.
There is one player on the Florida roster who hails from the State of North Carolina: SR OF Jaylen Guy (Greensboro, Southeast Guilford HS). Guy is a grad transfer from Liberty where he hit .309/.359/.434 in 2023.
The Key To A Win For State
The Pack are going to have to get some length from their starter, whether that’s Dom Fritton or Logan Whitaker. With the season on the line, I’m expecting Whitaker to get the nod, but that’s not a given.
Prediction
I’d rather not.
Outcome: A stressful one-run ballgame.