Cal and NC State find themselves in similar circumstances this week, with both programs in desperate need of a win to back on track for a bowl bid. Cal comes in losers of three straight, while the Pack has dropped two straight and three of four.
Like the Pack, the Bears have had a hell of a time trying to run the ball—they’ve been held under 3.0 yards per carry in five games and have been limited to fewer than 75 rushing yards in each of their last two.
Missing star running back Jaydn Ott in a couple of games—he’s day-to-day this week—certainly hasn’t helped, though he’s been too banged up to be effective when he has played. After averaging 5.4 YPC on his way to 1,300 yards last season, he’s at 2.9 YPC in 2024.
NC State’s defense has had plenty of issues stopping the run, so here we find a weakness-on-weakness matchup. Something has got to give!
(Via.)
Whew, those numbers smell. State’s defense has been one of the country’s least disruptive, ranking in the bottom five percent in havoc rate. It’s stuff rate on running plays is awful, and it has been prone to surrendering explosives. Cal gets a lot of its runs stuffed and has been highly inefficient on handoffs, which has put it in difficult spots on third downs.
Cal may be without its best running back and its best offensive lineman on Saturday, while NC State is forging on without its best linebacker. Who will prevail here? I have no idea. If the Bears manage an unusually good day on the ground, State is almost certainly doomed.
Cal’s passing game has been decent, thanks to an above-average explosive play rate, and improved ball security from quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza has thrown just three interceptions in 182 pass attempts this fall, after tossing 10 in 241 attempts in 2023.
Led by Mendoza’s improvement, Cal has completely turned around its turnover fortunes, going from 130th in 2023 with 28 total turnovers to 11th in 2024 with just four. The Bears rank third with a +1.67 turnover margin, and they’ve been even or better in all six of their games.
NC State’s offense, which emptied a full clip into its feet last week, would do well to follow Cal’s example. Cutting out crippling mistakes sure does help a lot.
The Bears’ defense is tied for the FBS lead with 13 interceptions, and senior cornerback Nohl Williams has six, which is two more than any other FBS player. Their pass defense has been very good—and fortunate, what with the 13 picks in just six games.
The Bears’ defense has done well to get teams off schedule by making them inefficient in the pass game. That’s given the Bears plenty of advantageous third down situations, and they usually take advantage (opponents are converting on 35% of third downs). NC State’s got to find a way not to let those things conspire against it all afternoon, and at the very least, not compound the tough spots with giveaways.
The Bears do allow their share of explosive pass plays, though, and NC State is going to need a few of those to get anything done, along with at least a bit of success running the ball against Cal’s underwhelming rush defense.
Cal is going to challenge State’s offense to be better situationally, and the Pack absolutely has to finish drives in plus territory with points, not whoopsie-doodles.