What’s the fall lineup going to look like?
The Non-Conference Schedule has (not!) been officially released
The Wolfpack had previously released the schedule for seven of our eleven opponents, including the four P4 heavy hitters. Thanks to the internet, we now have added the final four and some calendar information.
Practice Start – NCAA rules allow practice to start 42 days prior to the first official (non Exh) game. No official announcement from the Dail Center, but highly likely they will start at the earliest allowed date.
Scrimmages – Current NCAA rules allow one closed door scrimmage. In June, a proposal was submitted to the NCAA D1 Council to allow two scrimmages, two exhibition contests, or one of each. And the proposal eliminated the requirement that they be conducted in private and without official scoring. According to the NCAA website, that proposal was “tabled” – neither approved nor disapproved. Interestingly, NC State announced a public exhibition against UNC-W (10/11), other schools announced similar plans. The next major meeting of the NCAA D1 Council is October 8-9, this is not currently listed on their published agenda for that meeting. It may simply mean it was approved without any public announcement and the online rulebook not updated, or it may not yet have been agreed.
Last season Pomeroy ranked our OOC schedule as the 313th (of 362) most difficult. We ranked 14th in the ACC, only ahead of Pitt (340).
NC State 2023-2024 OOC opponents:
- Top 100 (3 – all losses) – Tennessee, BYU, Ole Miss
- 100s (1 win) – St Louis
- 200s (4 – all wins) – UT Martin, Vanderbilt, Abilene Christian, The Citadel,
- 300s (3 – all wins) – Charleston Southern, UMES (#351), Detroit Mercy (#359)
2024 – 2025 The Four Horsemen
Coach Keatts has established a pattern of scheduling four major conference opponents. Last season we had one true OOC away game, at Ole Miss (btw, worst loss of the season), and 3 opponents in tournaments on neutral sites in which we went 1-2. And the win, Vanderbilt, hardly belongs in this conversation (bye Stack!) because they tanked and ended the season at NET 202. This year it’s 2 on a neutral court, one away, and one at home.
- Rady Children’s Invitational – November 28 & 29, 2024 – San Diego – We get a rematch with Purdue (B1G) first, and then another shot at BYU (B12) or Ole Miss (SEC).
- Kansas (B12) – home & home series – December 14, 2024 at Kansas, Lenovo next season
- ACC / SEC Challenge – December 4 – Texas (SEC) at PNC (Texas – SEC, weird)
Summary – You can’t predict this season’s results (Edey-free Purdue probably won’t be as good; BYU – new coach, and Texas – new starting lineup, are mysteries), but on paper we’re playing three – and maybe four – 2024 NCAA tournament teams, one of which played for the title last season. Bart Torvik’s preseason predictions have them ranked Kansas #4, Texas #11, Purdue #16, BYU #28, and Ole Miss #39. Torvik ranks NC State #58. We should get four very solid, potentially resume padding, opponents. No complaints about scheduling those four.
There were rumors that we were trying to schedule Marquette and/or Auburn. But maybe we will get one of them next season? You never know, but we’ve already booked our ‘Four Horsemen’ – the 3-game Maui Invitational (Baylor, Oregon, Seton Hall, Texas, USC, UNLV, and host team Chaminade) along with that visit from Kansas to complete our home & home agreement.
2024 – 2025 The Magnificent Seven
And then there’s the rest of the schedule. Last season we scheduled opponents that ended up being 3 NET 300s. 3 200s, and a 100. The worst was Detroit Mercy (1-31) at NET 356, the best (of the 7) was St Louis (13-20) at NET 197. Not great. Granted, we probably expected at least a couple of them to have ended up ranked better, but the facts remain, they didn’t.
You can’t fairly compare this season’s opponents with last, having very little knowledge about them (coaching changes, recruits, transfers, opponents, etc.) at this stage – but let’s do it anyway.
This year we have scheduled 7 teams that finished ranked in last season’s NET as 4 300s, 2 200s, and 1 100s. Last season’s average NET for our 11 OOC opponents was 202, this year it is 188 (assuming the lower of BYU/Ole Miss). Obviously, until the season is played, that number is meaningless. But we appear to be attempting to replicate last season’s OOC schedule.
Is this schedule better than last season’s? Does it matter?
I’m a believer that a tougher schedule gives better results. And to prove it, I went back and looked at our OOC strength of schedule ranks (source: kenpom.com ) during Coach Keatts’ tenure, and how that correlated to A) Success in January (Theory A: Tougher schedule gets us started faster); and B) Overall season success (Theory B: Tougher early competition helps us do better in the ACC) You can see the results in the table above.
Theory A – Nope. Our toughest OOC schedule was our worst January. Our best January record aligns with our OOC ranked right in the middle. Probably more a function of the January ACC schedule, and of course injuries, than the OOC opponents.
Theory B – Nope, it does not appear to hold true for Coach Keatts’ Wolfpack teams. Our four seasons with the most wins happen to be our four seasons with the lowest ranked OOC schedule strength.
Conclusion – That did not turn out as expected. I am becoming increasingly convinced that Coach Keatts might just know what he is doing.
However, without question, come Selection Sunday that OOC strength of schedule can definitely make the difference between a thumbs up and a thumbs down. It seems foolish for a team like the Wolfpack, who too often finds itself in the bubble conversation, not to try a little harder to take advantage of that fact.
That said, I generally think this schedule is a little better. The ‘Magnificant Seven’ are pretty much the same as last season, but I think the ‘Four Horsemen’ give us the potential for high quality, resume building wins. Winning some would be nice.